Sunday, December 5, 2010

December 2010 Secondary Market Update

Hello all! After posting basically one article a week last month, I hope to get back up to speed with 15-20 posts a month from here on out. If you're wondering what the heck that last post was (Dear Mark, Mimic Jund Will Devour All), it is a new sub-series Mark and I are doing. Whenever we get together, we always talk about new ways to attack the format and creative ideas to grow upon. Usually we talk about standard, because it ebbs and flows the fastest, but we will talk about legacy and extended too (Vintage is dumb...). Mark recently traded for a full set of Maelstrum Pulses, so Jund was the natural list to emerge from it. Mark will be posting responses on his blog, and you can see his response here.

But now to some raw numbers. It's now been 2 months since Scars was released, and so Standard is firming up and so are the prices:

Scars of Mirroden
Koth of the Hammer                29.99     -5.85
Venser, the Sojounor               18.99    -2.48
Elspeth Tirel                             14.99    -5.45
Molten Tail Masticore              14.99    -4.47
Mox Opal                               13.99     -5.79
Wurmcoil Engine                     10.99     -4.00
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon       8.99     -2.98
Sword of Body and Mind         8.99      -0.99
Lux Cannon                             3.49       -2.50
Indominable Archangel             2.99       -0.93
Platinum Emporion                   1.99        -0-
Mindslaver                               1.49       -0.99
Geth, Lord of the Vault             1.49      -0.18
Liege of the Tangle                    1.49       -0-
Quicksilver Gargantuan             0.49       -0.15

As I predicted last month, Elspeth has gone down to 15, with Venser close behind, and Koth sits 15 above them. And yes, Mox Opal continues to drop. Where do I think this will all go? I think the prices are mainly settled for now, and if anything Koth will go down as low as 25, and Venser could potentially stay at 16 if a deck finds a home for him. I think Elspeth will continue to drop though, maybe down to 10 or 11 next month. I must say it's suprising to see 2/3 of the cards go down by at least 2.

Magic 2011
Primeval Titan                 36.99    -8.00
Frost Titan                      19.99    +1.06
Grave Titan                    14.99    +2.26
Baneslayer Angel            13.99    -2.98
Inferno Titan                    8.99     +2.05
Jace Beleran                    6.99     +0.53
Garruk Wildspeaker        6.99       -0-
Sun Titan                         5.99     -0.85
Ajani Goldmane           **No English Data, Foreign Cards going at ~5**
Gaea's Revenge               4.99    +1.03
Lilliana Vess                    3.49     -0.45
Platinum Angel                 1.99     -0-
Chandra Nalaar                1.99     -0-
Time Reversal                 **No Non-Foil Data, Foil going at 5.99**
Demon of Death's Gate    1.49    +0.47

The 2 cards I want to point out here is the rise of Grave Titan and Inferno Titan. The Meta is constantly shifting, and now decks like Vampires is getting bigger, which is conveniently cards like Grave Titan and Inferno Titan are much better. The Titans completely define the format right now, so always keep them in mind and which one is the best against every deck you see. It's well defined now that Sun Titan is the worst of the cycle (which conveniently mimics how white is the least played color too), and even Sun Titan decks don't run more than 2 of him. Prime Time may go up another 2, but that's it I expect.

Rise of the Eldrazi
Vengivine                                  35.99    -0.99
Gideon Jura                              29.99    -1.00
Kargan Dragonlord                   13.99    -1.97
All Is Dust                                13.49    -0.49
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre            9.99       -0-
Kozelik, the Butcher of Truth      7.99    -1.45
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn            7.99    -0.95
Linvala, Keeper of Silence          5.99    -1.97
Sarkhan the Mad                       5.99     -0.50
Transcendant Master                 3.49     -0.49
Lighthouse Chronologist             3.49      -0-
Khalni Hydra                              3.49     -0-
Nirkana Revenant                       2.99    -0.91
Hellcarver Demon                       .99    +0.32
Cast Through Time                     .99     +0.41

Right as Vengivine sees more play it goes down? I can only guess the liklihood of Survival getting banned in Legacy is what's keeping Vengivine's price in check. Everything else is a minor change.

Worldwake
Jace, the Mind Sculptor        93.99    +4.01
Abyssal Persecutor              14.99       -0-
Avenger of Zendikar            10.99       -0-
Eye of Ugin                          3.49      -4.50
Dragonmaster Outcast          3.49      -0.49
Omnath, Locus of Mana       3.49      +0.15
Admonition Angel                 2.49      +0.35
Comet Storm                        1.99      -0.99
Wrexial, the Risen Deep       .99           -0-
Novablast Wurm                  .99          -0-

And this is why it's not smart to buy Worldwake packs. If you don't get Jace, you don't your money's worth. Stoneforge is down to 8 from 10, and it's the 4th most valuable card in the set. Eye of Ugin dropped in price by 56% which is rough for anyone who recently invested in some (although you only really need 1), and Jace will always continue to climb in price.

Zendikar
Lotus Cobra                               17.99    +1.05
Eldrazi Monument                       16.99    -0.97
Sorin Markov                              8.99     -0.45
Nissa Revane                              8.49     -1.29
Iona, Shield of Emeria                 5.49    -0.45
Chandra Ablaze                           3.49     +0.21
Felidar Sovereign                         2.99    -0.47
Ob Nixilis, the Fallen                   2.49      -0.49
Warren Instigator                         2.49    -0.43
Mindbreak Trap                          2.49      +0.55
Rampaging Baloths                      1.99      -0-
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet          1.49     -0.19
Obsidian Fireheart                        .99      +0.21
Lorothos, the Tidemaker              .49       -0.47
Eternity Vessel                             .49       -0.20

These prices have been set for a while now, so there isn't much to say. I'm interested to see how the 4 cards at the top of the list hold value, even though only Lotus Cobra is the only one in a top-tier deck.

That's all for today, but in the near future I have soom cool ideas that may or may not include Genesis Wave + allies and another deck that is UW and wins with poison counters. Until next time, stay classy

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