Monday, November 1, 2010

November 2010 Secondary Market Update

One mover in particular that I want to mention is the dramatic rise in price of Frost Titan in the past couple weeks. In October, we had him as a 7/8 dollar card, but now on CFB, it goes for $19, and it's still selling! But before I get too deep in the tank on that one (thankfully I had 2 before it doubled and a half), let's get an overview of our current prices, see how they moved since last month, and when we're all done, I will introduce what I feel like could be a very healthy new constructed format, so let's go!

For each set, I will sort the cards by price instead of alphebetically, and then will label how much it moved since last month, and in various cases I will note where I think they will go from here.

Scars of Mirroden
Koth of the Hammer                35.84    -10.16
Venser, the Sojounor               21.47    -22.53
Elspeth Tirel                             20.44    -15.56
Mox Opal                               19.78     -15.22
Molten Tail Masticore              19.46    -7.54
Wurmcoil Engine                     14.99     +.99
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon       11.97     -4.03
Sword of Body and Mind         9.98      +1.48
Lux Cannon                             5.99       +.99
Indominable Archangel             3.92       -2.08
Mindslaver                               2.48       -.52
Platinum Emporion                   1.97        -.28
Geth, Lord of the Vault             1.67      -1.33
Liege of the Tangle                    1.46       -1.04
Quicksilver Gargantuan             .64         -.36

I think Venser and Elspeth are going to drop another 5 before settling, Koth may as well, although he is still 15 more than the other 2. I think Mox Opal will continue to drop, simply because there no decks that can use it effectively right now. Keep in mind Metalcraft will get easier and more powerful when Besieged comes out, so it's not a bad idea to think ahead on that.

Magic 2011
Primeval Titan                 44.99    +7.99
Frost Titan                      18.93    +11.93
Baneslayer Angel            16.97    -2.03
Grave Titan                    12.73    -1.77
Garruk Wildspeaker        6.98    +.98
Inferno Titan                    6.94     -0-
Sun Titan                         6.84     -0-
Jace Beleran                    6.46     +.46
Ajani Goldmane               3.99      -0-
Gaea's Revenge               3.96    +.96
Lilliana Vess                    3.94     +.69
Platinum Angel                 1.94     +.69
Chandra Nalaar                1.90   -.60
Time Reversal                  1.28    -.72
Demon of Death's Gate    1.07    -.18

Blue and Green titans are both up and are both at a premium price, clearly reflecting the dominance of green and blue in the meta. Almost no decks aren't running either, and a handful have both. It's interesting to see Chandra go down, even though she is recursive removal as a 1-of in RUG/UR Control. With the exception of those 2 cards, M11 is incredibly stable.

Rise of the Eldrazi
Vengivine                                  36.98    -3.02
Gideon Jura                              20.99    -9.01
Kargan Dragonlord                   15.96    +.96
All Is Dust                                13.98    -3.02
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre            9.98    +1.98
Kozelik, the Butcher of Truth      9.44    +.44
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn           8.94     -1.06
Linvala, Keeper of Silence          7.96    +.96
Sarkhan the Mad                       6.49     -.76
Transcendant Master                 3.98     -0-
Nirkana Revenant                       3.90    -0-
Lighthouse Chronologist             3.49    -.51
Khalni Hydra                              3.48   -.52
Hellcarver Demon                       .67    -.33
Cast Through Time                     .58     -.42

Obviously there is less and less movement the further back we go, but the big movers is the drop in Vengivine and Gideon Jura. For how broken Vengivine is, I am suprised no one has made a deck with it recently. I have heard of this Darkvine deck going around but have not actually seen it played. Same too with Bant Vengivine. Also, I am interested to see if Zvi's Beastmaster deck pops up some time. It used Vengivine, and it was very fast. Back to money stuff though, the drop in All Is Dust makes sense because I have no clue why it ever went up to begin with. I think this set is fairly settled and only Kargan Dragonlord will drop if Mono-Red becomes nullified.

For these last 2 sets, I didn't collect data last month, so I can't tell you how they moved.

Worldwake
Jace, the Mind Sculptor        89.98
Abyssal Persecutor              14.99
Avenger of Zendikar            10.99
Eye of Ugin                          7.99
Dragonmaster Outcast          3.98
Omnath, Locus of Mana       3.34
Comet Storm                        2.98
Admonition Angel                 2.14
Wrexial, the Risen Deep       .98
Novablast Wurm                  .96

4 things:
1. Jace is too expensive
2. 2 of the 4 expensive ones go in the same deck
3. I have no idea why Persecutor holds value, no one plays it (should go back down)
4. Please note Basilisk Collar is 6 and Stoneforge is 10

Zendikar
Eldrazi Monument                       17.96
Lotus Cobra                               16.94
Nissa Revane                              9.78
Sorin Markov                              9.44
Iona, Shield of Emeria                 5.94 (costs 20 foil!)
Felidar Sovereign                        3.46
Chandra Ablaze                           3.28
Ob Nixilis, the Fallen                   2.98
Warren Instigator                         2.92
Rampaging Baloths                      1.96
Mindbreak Trap                          1.94
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet          1.68
Lorothos, the Tidemaker              .96
Obsidian Fireheart                        .78
Eternity Vessel                             .69

Zendikar doesn't have great Mythics beyond the first 5, but don't forget about all those fetch lands which go for 10-11 each. I'm particularily interested to see Eldrazi Monument so high in value, but that's probably because of elves being a good aggro deck currently. I imagine this will stay stable, and if anything changes, it will be Eldrazi Monument coming back down to earth.

Hopefully this was helpful, I think with the current format it will be easier for you to read and actually gain something, and it's easier for me because I can just copy n paste, and only a couple details will have to change here and there. But now it's time for me to unvail my new plan for a new constructed format. I would ask for a drum roll, but it's actually not that dramatic. Basically I think it would be awesome if there was a no-mythic standard constructed format. While Wizards will probably never officially support this as it will give anti-mythic rare folk something to feed off of, this would be great as an unofficial format. Try to think of a big-time deck that doesn't run any mythics. I will give you a mental shortcut: almost every deck runs TITANS. Not just mythics as a whole, but titans in particular. What decks don't run titans? Mono Red comes to mind, but it has Koth and Kargan Dragonlord raising the bar. Elves? Eldrazi Monument. The only deck I can think of right now is Quest for Argentum Armor, but that deck is more of a gimmic and is incredibly unreliable.

Due to the prevelance of Mythics and their cost, more booster packs are opened, which increases the supply of cards out there. For each set of Mythics printed, there are 2 sets of rares printed. So for very Jace the Mindsculptor printed, theres 2 Celestial Connelaides printed. If you were to pick a specific Mythic and a specific Rare, you are twice as likely to get that rare (although one time I did call opening Maelstrom Archangel from a Conflux pack from WalMart). Basically, the presence/power/cost of mythics pushes the cost of rares down. Here's the top 4 most expensive rares from each set:

Zendikar
Fetch Land Cycle     8.78 - 12.98
Goblin Guide            6.98
Bloodghast               5.67
Summoning Trap      3.49

Worldwake
Stoneforge Mystic      9.98
Basilisk Collar            5.94
Creeping Tar Pit         4.49
Celestial Connelaide   3.96

Rise of the Eldrazi
Consuming Vapors         4.48
Eldrazi Temple                4.39
Student of Warfare         3.48
Coralhelm Commander   3.40

Magic 2011
Fauna Shaman            7.32
Steel Overseer            3.73
Glacial Fortress          3.48
Drowned Catacomb   3.48
Birds of Paradise         2.98
Brittle Effigy               2.98
Elvish Archdruid         2.98

Scars of Mirroden
Ratchet Bomb            8.98
Mimic Vat                  5.48
Hand of Praetors        3.87
Darkslick Shores        3.20


Long string of prices short, having a no mythic format can reduce the costs of the decks you sleeve up by hundreds of dollars, which I am sure no one is going to complain about. Many decks can stay, but will have to be varied. UW control could still exist thanks to Day of Judgement and Sphinx of Jwar Isle, and ramp could still exist by going Summoning Trap into Terastadon, but the power levels and power spread between those who have and those who have not will all drop.

Nothing is quite like a good long article, but gone are the days of staying up til 2 or 3 every day writing, I have to wake up for work tomorrow, so until then, never feel that you must pay more to play more. Stay classy

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