Pack to Moat week 14

Hello everyone! This past weekend was SCG Providence (report will be up soon) and I actually didn't trade nearly as much as I expected myself to, although that's partially because I was kinda tilted saturday, and way too in the glimpse zone sunday. I did however make some huge trades, and a couple potentially damning mistakes too, so here we go:

May 2, 2012

My:
Sulfur Falls (5.94)

His:
Solemn Simulacrum (6.93)

Net: +0.99

I did not know that Sulfur Falls had risen a dollar in value, although now that Innistrad is no longer being drafted I think all of the dual lands will start to rise in value assuming they aren't getting reprinted in M13 (which they have no reason to). In general picking these up is a very good investment for the next few months. However, I am going for a short gain, so Solemn Simulacrum is a solid choice, especially with how popular ramp is right now with Cavern.

May 4, 2012

My:
Thoughtcast (0.52)
Path to Exile (4.87)
Woodland Cemetery (4.85)

His:
Ichorid (7.49)
Misthollow Griffen (3.56)

Net: +0.81

Once again, I thought Path was worth 4 instead 5 which cut into the potential profits of the trade. I decided to prospect the Misthollow Griffen in case it did well at the Legacy SCG event. Steve wrote about the deck on TCG Player today, though the ever-important "I went 2-3" line will stick out to too many. Obviously though, no deck is optimized on the first weekend it is legal and within a month a far more refined list will probably break into the top 32 of a SCG Open and it's popularity will receive a solid bump.

My:
2x Hinterland Harbor (4.16, 8.32)

His:
Phyrexian Metamorph (7.60)

Net: -0.72

As much as it sucks to lose some value here, I really didn't gain or lose anything here. Hinterlands trade at 4 and Metamorph is at 8, so when we aren't counting pennies I am theoretically gaining value by turning my smaller estate into bigger plots of property. I am at the $300 required value for the Moat, so all I need to do now is turn all of those dollars into higher value more compressed cards in order to present an appealing deal. This is the kind of trade I hope to do more of.

May 5, 2012

My:
Solemn Simulacrum (6.93)

His:
Champion of the Parish (4.92)
Maga, Traitor to Mortals (0.71)
Infernal Tutor (5.66)

Net: +4.36

Maga is the unique kill card for the Food Chain deck, and at $1 to pick up, it was too good of an opportunity to pass on! Champion and Tutor are both very solid safe staples that will definitely not lose value. In fact, Champion does even have the opportunity to grow a buck if the Boros/Naya humans deck comes through (I prefer Naya despite never thinking of it myself).

My:
Stoneforge Mystic (7.60)
Bayou (66.87)
Jace, the Mind Sculptor (58.99)

His:
Force of Will (66.66)
Gaea's Cradle (69.22)

Net: +2.42

And here was a MAJOR marquee trade! Basically the Stoneforge means nothing for this trade and it was just a pawn to make him happy about it. Force and Bayou were basically the same value, so I really upgraded my Jace into a Cradle, which I am perfectly glad to do! I feel these cards will be cornerstones of making the final deal happen for me!

My:
Phyrexian Metamorph (7.60)
Myr Superion (1.31)
Heartless Summoning (1.68)

His:
2x Chinese Foil Vapor Snag (~6.00, 12.00)

Net: +1.41

And once again we have a trade where some cards simply don't matter, and for this one that is obviously the Myr and Heartless. They were rotting in my binder ever since I acquired them, and I counted them as $0 value when calculating whether this trade was viable or not. These Vapor Snags will probably be tough to move, although when I finally do find someone who wants them I can image it will be a very interesting trade, and they will most definitely go together.

My:
Champion of the Parish (4.92)

His:
Killing Wave (1.69)
Inferno Titan (4.05)
Thunderous Wrath (1.19)

Net: +2.01

Killing Wave has some potential as a sleeper card that is startign to gain popularity because of the Kamikazee deck that Smi77y is advocating. The deck seems very powerful, though I haven't tested it myself, and if it picks up than Killing Wave can gain some value, maybe even up to 3! At the time I made this trade, T Wrath was at 0.50. Inferno Titan was a tough card to move last time, so I really don't know why I picked this one up.... This will probably come back to bite me....

My:
Thinderous Wrath (1.19)

His:
Gavony Township (1.70)

Net: +0.51

Simple, quick, elegant, resouceful. This is as easy as trading can get.

My:
Gavony Township (1.70)
Mirran Crusader (4.15)

His:
Undiscovered Paradise (7.56)

Net: +1.71

Undiscovered Paradise constantly sees play in fringe legacy decks like Dredge and Zombies, most notably powerful because of its interaction with Bloodghast. This might never find a home, but if it does, that person will be very excited to have finally found it because I NEVER see these in trade binders!

My:
Spellskite (4.42)

His:
Hinterland Harbor (4.16)

Net: -0.26

Spellskite isn't really tradable, any Dual Land is. Plain and simple. I can lose a quarter for a card that is actually liquid.

My:

Force of Will (66.66)

Ichorid (7.49)

His:

2x Natural Order (36.03, 72.06)

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (3.88)

Net: +1.79

And this is the trade that made me lose sleep that night and made me not trade all of Sunday.... I probably would have never had to move that Force of Will until the final trade was made for the Moat, and yet I traded it into some $36 fringe cards.... GAH!!! I feel like I really took a few steps back with this trade.... And by few I mean many... If there was any trade I wish I could undo from this whole process it would be this one. Losing $20 to get a Bayou isn't nearly as bad... -_-

11 Trades

Week 14 Net: +15.03

Aside from the very last trade of the weekend, this was a fantastic week for trading! The problem I have found though is that my normal binder is pretty terrible, so it is hard to work my way into trades when my only decent binder is the value-trading one which is a turn-off for people. I find that doing a pleasant normal trade leads to a good Pack to Moat trade because they are more comfortable with me as a person and they don't feel like I am a big mean jerk. I guess I will have to put a lot of work into my normal binder to help make the pack to moat better. It's kinda crazy how these things work!

Despite making mistakes from time to time, this has really been a learning process for me. A few weeks ago I said I hoped to have it done by SCG Providence. Obviously that hasn't happened, but when I started the whole project I aspired to do it by the summer, which is still a very real possibility. Seeing as I am already at the right value (~310 right now) I think getting the individual high value cards over the next 4 weeks shouldn't be a difficult task. I may slow down with the project a little as I don't have any big tournaments planned until SCG Worcester although I may take a weekend to visit a new store (probably in Boston?) which may help accelerate the final stage. It will certainly be a relief to finally have it done!

That's all I have for today! Until next time, stay classy!

Ryan Lackie

Ryan.Lackie92@gmail.com

@ThingsILack