Avacyn, Restore my Binder!

Hello Everyone!

Last week, when I was at the TCQ at TJ's, I did some huge trading which ultimately netted me 7 dual lands, and some other awesome legacy staples. At what cost? A little over half of all my trade stock. After the event I went to go update my binders, and what was 2 has now become one. In fact, I dare say the pack - moat binder is much more appealing than my normal one. Just because we're down though, does not mean we are close to being out. With Avacyn Restored coming out this weekend, the financial world is going to get its quarterly shake!

If you are new to the financial and trading game, here's the first and most important thing to know: 80+% of the cards in any new set are overpriced. So the real goal is to be able to figure out which cards will go up and trade for a few more than we normally would in order to reap the rewards when the price goes up a little. Since I started writing this a few days ago, a couple cards have already exploded in price, and I wasn't able to write about them ahead of time. Those two cards are Entreat the Angels and Bonfire of the Damned. Entreat has gone up from its original $4-5 up to $20 where it currently rests. Bonfire of the Damned has gone up from $7 to $12-13. I think people playing the pre-release helped those cards go up because nothing helps players understand new mechanics than actually playing with them. Entreat and Bonfire are both perfectly fine for their normal casting costs, and when miracled things just get dumb.

So unfortunately I can't prospect those, but I have some other cards that I find to be intriguing. So let's take a look at all the (relevant) mythics first:

Will go down:
Avacyn, Angel of Hope (currently $12)
She is simply unplayable outside of the realm of casual, down to 6 or 7.

Bonfire of the Damned (currently $12)
As happens with all cards that boom in price (besides Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Tarmogoyf) their price will soon settle back down to reasonable levels. Bonfire is very good, and I will hopefully get 1 or 2 for my zombies deck to tear open the creature mirrors, but it will probably settle to 8-10.

Entreat the Angels (currently $20)
Just like bonfire, the boom will ineitably read to a bust. The important card to compare Entreat to is White Sun's Zenith. If you have 11 mana, Entreat will make four 4/4s for (that's a lot of 4s in a row!) 16 power. WSZ will make 8 2/2s for the same 16 power. When miracled, Entreat will make 9 4/4s for 36 power. However, WSZ is an instant and Entreat is a sorcery. Entreat to be effective generally requires tapping out on your turn, giving the opponent a 1 turn window for action. Even though you are tapped out, you can set up your game plan such that they actually can't deal with the angels and they just die to Avacyn's Army. I think this will see play everywhere WSZ used to, but Entreat will drop to $10 or 12.

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight (currently $6)
She came out at 10, and has dropped to 6, and will continue to drop to 3

Griselbrand (currently $12)
He is very good, and will probably stay around $12, but may deflate a little down to 10

Sigarda, Host of Herons (Currently $14)
Good card, but not $14 good. I anticipate this to sink to $10

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage (Currently $33)
Once the Jace tax is paid, this will be a $18 planeswalker

Temporal Mastery (Currently $32)
I expect to see a lot of this card at SCG Providence, but as people play with the card more, they should realize there are just better options. This is the major bust of the set, and will be a $8-10 in no time

Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded (Currently $17.68)
This is a very hard card to evaluate (and though I said I would, I haven't gotten to it yet =X) but I think he is very good in the right deck, which won't be widely popular. $8 for you sir

Will go up:
Bruna, Light of Alabaster (currently $4)
One of my friends is building a sick EDH deck with her where you play cards like Traumatize to aggressively put enchantments in the graveyard that come back attached to Bruna when she attacks someone. If this kind of a deck takes off, then I can see her value.... not changing. Generals aren't worth anything unless they are foil. For example, Azami is worth $2 unless it is foil at which point it is $40-45! Jhoira, another popular general is $4 normally, but $30 when foiled. So Bruna is selling for $15 foil right now on SCG, and I anticipate that going up to $25 in short time once this deck starts getting around.

Craterhoof Behemoth (currently $2)
I have been playing with this card in Legacy Elf Combo, and it is the real deal! At the same cost as casting and activating Ezuri, Craterhoof almost always deals more damage, and is basically as effective as Emrakul at winning all by itself. I don't think Behemoth with go anywhere dramatic, but I expect it to bubble up a little to 3 or 4 over time.

Misthollow Griffen (Currently $3-4)
In case you haven't heard, when you combine Food Chain and Misthollow Griffen, you get infinite mana of any color that can only be used on creatures. I may nor may not write about it, I haven't decided yet, but the 2 big cards to cast are Emrakul (obviously) and Maga, Traitor to Mortals. If this combo takes off I can see Misthollow rising in value up to $6 or 7 and Food Chain will rise from its current $10 up to $15 (the card was at 3 before Griffen was spoiled). However if the combo doesn't pan out to be any good, than Griffen will settle to $5 and Food Chain will rest at $7.


So as I see it, there isn't a lot of potential money to be made in this set via Mythics. So now I want to highlight some rares that are of interest to me:

Alchemists Refuge (Currently $2)
I think this card will go down to a buck or less initially, but will rise to $3 over the long-term. The card to compare it to Winding Canyons, which is a $5 land from Weatherlight. Winding Canyons only lets you cast creatures, but the activation is colorless. Refuge lets you cast anything, but the activation is color-specific. I can see this being playing in a Momir Vig EDH deck, but not much more than that. Pick this guy up when it sinks, and over time the card should come up the give a small payoff

Cathars' Crusade (Currently $1)
This card is a snap staple in any tokens deck. It combos quite nicely with Pentavus and Ghavu, Grave fo Spores. Using either of those cards while Crusade is out, every time you make a token by removing a +1/+1 from your guy, you get a +1/+1 on all your tokens AND the creature that make the token, so you don't actually lose any counters from your Pentavus/Ghavu and you can basically go infinte. That may not effect Crusade's value at all, but it is worth knowing the interaction.

Cavern of Souls (Currently $24)
Everyone is losing their heads over this card, and I really don't know why... It is a very good card, no one can deny that, but everyone is lamenting a $30+ land in standard, which really makes no sense to me! I think this card is good, but as we have seen with Mythics around, it takes A LOT to make a rare stay in high value. Notice how Stoneforge Mystic is the second-highest value card in its set, but can't break $10 despite being banned in Modern and the center of many archaetypes in Legacy? Why is Snapcaster Mage $25 despite being the best blue creature ever printed and legal in every format? Cavern of Souls is good, but not $30+ good. I think this guy will live in the $15-20 range, and then when the Titans rotate out it will drop to $10.

Deadeye Navigator (currently 0.50)
If it weren't for the titans, I would be talking about how to make a combo deck with Deadeye + Priest of Urabrask to make infinite mana, maybe win with something like Heritic's Punishment or just Bonfire of the Damned. However when the titans leave, so will Priest and the combo will never live. That being said, this guy is straight up value! I can see him being played in some kind of heartless summoning deck where strong ETB abilities shine. This isn't likely to go anywhere, but it has potential

Descendant's Path (Currently $2)
They have tried making enchantments like this before in the past, but this is definitely the best of the bunch. Will it be enough to make it playable? I don't know, but I intuitively want to say no. Only looking at 1 card once per turn cycle is very little value as this will probably only trigger a half dozen times a game, and will be very unreliable. In my Zombies deck for example I play 25 creatures which means Path will hit less than 50% of the time. And I consider Zombies to be very dude-heavy! Even if you play 36 creatures and 20 land, this will only hit 60% of the time, which is not very consistent at all.

Desolate Lighthouse (Currently $3)
We haven't seen any spell-lands from this block ever get too high in value despite many being incredibly good, and this is another to keep you finger on. This card will be huge in BV decks and Grixis control decks, and I expect this card to be played for eternity.

Dual Casting (Currently $1)
This has so much potential, it's insane! Here's one combo I know of right now: Enchant Dual Casting to Midnight Guard, then cast Gather the Townsfolk. Retaining priority, make a copy of the spell. When the copy of Gather resolves, Midnight Guard will untap and you can do it again. Another potential combo would be to enchant Deceiver Exarch with Dual casting, then target it with a Cackling Counterpart. Use the same combo as before to make tons of copies of the Deceiver Exarch, all the end of the opponent's turn. The only problem with these combos is that they require tons of mana, and when the combo is resolved you have either a bunch of 1/1s a la Empty the Warrens or a bunch of horned Turtles. Cool. There is a lot of potential with Dual Casting though, so I look forward to seeing how it can be busted open.

Riders of Gavony (currently $1)
I can see this card being a sideboard card for the human decks against any kind of tribal deck, but that doesn't sound overly exciting, and sideboard cards aren't ever worth too much.

Silverblade Paladin (currently $5)
Man.... I really should have written this review last week, shouldn't have I? Last week Chas Andres sent out a tweet asking people what financial predictions they had, and I called Silverblade to be a $6 in no time. And here we are, just 1 week later it rose from 2 to 5, and i expect it to keep rising!

Terminus (Currently $4)
I think this is the best miracle of them all, and the most likely to see play in legacy. One top local player already has this in his Counter-Top deck along with Brainstorm and Jace TMS to set it up, and as an Elf player that makes me a sad panda. being able to instant-speed wrath the board for W is so freakin insane!!!! This card WILL be played, and I think this is a card that will hold good long-term value from the set.

Vexing Devil (Currently $15)
Goblin Guide you are not, sir. GG is currently $5 and this will share its fate. Ship 'em if you got 'em

This set seems to be lacking a little in terms of money cards, although it does have a few. The block Pro Tour is coming up in 10 days, at which point the best thing you can do it stay glued to the live feeds and on twitter and have your finger on the trigger ready to move cards as soon as you know where they are going. That's all I have for today! Until next time, stay classy!

Ryan Lackie
Ryan.Lackie92@gmail.com
@ThingsILack