Thursday, September 8, 2011

September 2011 Secondary Market Update

Hello everyone! It's about time I got back into the monthly secondary market updates. If you don't know what I'm talking about, basically I'm going to list the prices of the top 8 most valuable card in each standard set, and then highlight some cards of note in Modern and Legacy. I haven't had a price update since June, so the price changes will cover 2 months of change instead of 1, so keep that in mind if you see any dramatic price changes.

For all of my prices I use TCG Player Medium prices. Any change of less than 50 cents will be listed as -0-:

Magic 2012

Jace, Memory Adept            29.12   --trending down--
Garruk, Primal Hunter          26.48   --trending down--
Chandra, the Firebranded     22.83   --trending down--
Gideon Jura                         16.89   --stable--
Primeval Titan                      15.11  --trending down--
Solemn Simulcrum               11.53   --stable--
Phantasmal Image                10.46  --trending up--
Grave Titan                           9.00    --trending down--

I feel that Jace, Garruk, and Chandra all have their values up more because of the fact they are new shiney planeswalkers more than they are actually any good. I expect them all to fallin the 8-15 range in the coming months, so trade accordingly. I did trade for a Jace recently, but only if my trade partner would value him at 18, which he eventually obliged to. I don't know why Grave Titan has been on it's way down, but it's basically because UB isn't seeing much play right now. I don't think UB will be as good post rotation. A major advantage UB has over UW is that it has hand disruption. Inquisition and Duress are being replaced by Despise and Distress, which isn't exactly a step up. Black will finally get a viable planeswalker, but shes a mixed bag of... well I can't really say nuts, but you know what I mean... Primeval Titan is still cascading down it's long fall from grace, and if you still have any I would recommend dumping him as fast as possible (if you didn't follow my advice from June). I still stand by what I said about the card getting down to 5 by Christmas

New Phyrexia

Phyrexian Obliterator                21.31  -0-
Sword of War and Peace         17.34  -7.29
Karn Liberated                          14.89   -7.35
Batterskull                                  13.10  -9.25
Spellskite                                    9.78    -0-
Birthing Pod                               9.04   +Alot
Phyrexian Metamorph              6.00    +approx 1
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite    5.59   -0-

Birthing Pod is the clear winner here, as it was about $2 before the summer started, and now it's in the top 8 for most valuable cards in the set. This is just another all too frequent example of people just netdecking instead of innovating... Everyone was talking about how Stoneforge Mystic was overpowered because it tutored and cheated on mana costs, but then they look at Birthing Pod and don't even blink an eye. Really? I just feel bad that I can't put my money where my mouth is because I was gone all summer. Regardless, it's interesting to see how Batterskull and Sword of War and Peace have completely tanked in price thanks to the loss of Stoneforge Mystic. Also interesting is the lack of price change in Phyrexian Obliterator. I don't know of any decks that use him, but maybe he will have an elevated price for it's entire life in standard like Abyssal Persecutor without ever actually getting played. I think these prices are fairly stable with Batterskull falling to 12, but with Karn going all the way down to 11.

Mirroden Beseiged

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas        25.8   -7.59
Sword of Feast and Famine   24.59   +3.14
Consecrated Sphinx               14.52   +Alot
Inkmoth Nexus                        11.58   +1.35
Hero of Bladehold                   9.28   +3.27
Green Sun's Zenith                 7.86     +Trending up fast in past week
Thrun, the Last Troll              6.75       -0-
Blightsteel Colossus               5.77    -0.95

I called Tezzeret dropping down to 25 in both May and June, and low and behold here he is! As of right now, I'm actually trading out Tezzeret more than I'm trading for him, and that's absolutely has something to do with that fact that we have 0 playable artifacts spoiled from Innistrad right now. On the contrary, we have Consecrated Sphinx which has exploded in price, and I expect it to stay that way for a while, as it could be the control finisher of choice for the next couple months. If you are looking for ultra long term value, Sword of Feast and Famine is your guy, as it will be a Modern, Legacy, and Commander card for years to come. Green Sun's Zenith has slid ever since it's original printing until this past week when it went up $3, which I imagine is because of Modern, but I can't be sure...

Scars of Mirroden


Koth of the Hammer                  22.30   -0.75
Mox Opal                                    21.57   +1.91
Venser, the Sojounor                17.07   +4.84
Sword of Body and Mind         10.73  -1.33
Wurmcoil Engine                        9.98   +1.64

Elspeth Tirel                                9.75    -0.53
Seachrome Coast                        7.62
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon       7.11    -3.54

It's nice to see something besides a field of red in the price change column. The big gainer here is obviously Venser who finally found himself a deck in the Bant Birthing Pod deck, which also brought Wurmcoil up as well. Mox Opal went up thanks to the Tempered Steel Deck. Tempered Steel itself, although not listed, would have been the #9 at the list at 6.86, so keep that in mind going forwards. Innistrad looks to not have much in red for a fast RDW deck, so Koth could take a hit because of that. I expect Venser to go down again because I feel the best version of Pod is going to be BUG pod, although Bant will still be viable. Sword of Body and Mind could go down a little more, but if it reaches 8, start scooping them up because it will absolutely go right back up after rotation. Elspeth, on the other hand, is really only going down along with Skittles to the 6 range.

Magic 2011


Jace Beleran                 10.58   -0-
Baneslayer Angel        8.83    -1.17
Lilliana Vess                  6.57   +0.74

Garruk Wildspeaker     5.75    -1.19
Inferno Titan                 5.71   -7.72

Steel Overseer               5.18
Ajani Goldmane            5.17
Sun Titan                      4.51     -1.59

Wow... There's just no money to be had in Magic 2011! I omitted Prime Time and Grave Titan because they also got top marks in 2012, but even those cards are losing value! If you still have Jace Beleran kicking around I would dump him as fast as you can, because in a couple months I expect him to drop to 6 or 7, same goes for Baneslayer. Simply put, if ANY of your cards have "M11" on them, just get rid of them ASAP!

Rise of the Eldrazi


Vengevine                                     16.76   -7.66
Kozelik, the Butcher of Truth     11.75  +2.33

Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre           11.73   +0.90
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn           11.70   +1.58
All Is Dust                                     7.69      -0-
Splinter Twin                                 7.30    -3.46
Kargan Dragonlord                      6.63     -2.29

Linvala, Keeper of Silence           6.44

As we move very close to rotation, it's important ot identify the cards that will have staying power outside of Standard. Basically, were looking for Modern, Legacy, and casual allstars. A great example is the 3 Legendary Eldrazi. I believe they will be the most valuable cards in the set for a long time to come, in the same way that Progenitus is sitting around $15. Vengevine will be close behind though as he will always be tha card that's really good, but a tough puzzle to crack. Splinter Twin doesn't have what it takes in Legacy, but as we saw at PT Philly, it absolutely has what it takes in Modern (it kinda won the whole thing). Aside from those cards, the rest of the set is going to lose a lot of value, so trade accordingly.

Worldwake


Jace, the Mind Sculptor     64.37   -17.54
Stoneforge Mystic              9.07     -11.53
Creeping Tar Pit                   6.26     -1.89
Abyssal Persecutor            6.20     -1.80
Avenger of Zendikar          5.23      -1.68
Celestial Colonnade            4.66       -0-

Kalastria Highborn              4.29     -0.80
Dragonmaster Outcast       4.29      +A lot!

So this little thing happened when I was gone for the summer, it really wasn't a big deal, except that it completely changed the landscape of Standard for the months to come. That of course is the bannning of Jace and Stoneforge. You know the cards are completely overpowered when they have been banned in Standard AND Modern for months and they are still the 2 most valuable cards in the set thanks to Legacy! That being said, I think that Jace could ascend to as much as 70 and Stoneforge could go up as high as 15, but I would be suprised if they went any higher. All of the other cards in the set though are going to go down. The only ones that have a hope of retaining good value is the man-lands, but even those seem to be too slow for Modern as it sits right now, especially with Mutavault in the format.

Zendikar


Lotus Cobra                     10.34  -3.80
Sorin Markov                   7.49   -3.18
Nissa Revane                    6.13  -1.01
Iona, Shield of Emeria      6.04  +0.51

Bloodghast                       5.67  -1.54
Goblin Guide                     5.26  -1.20
Eldrazi Monument           4.64  -2.13

Chandra Ablaze               4.14   -0-

The 5 most valuable cards in the set are actually the fetchlands, but I have a seperate section for those. As is true with all of the ZEN block cards that are rotating, which ones will retain value? Iona, Bloodghast, and Goblin Guide are my choices for most valuable cards down the road. Lotus Cobra may hold some value, but it won't see too much play. Iona is awesome in Reanimator decks and in Dredge (she's my maindeck dredge target), and Bloodghast has been seeing play in Legacy dredge as well. Goblin Guide, as has been said before, is arguably the best red creature ever printed, and it's a 4-of in any RDW deck. As for the other cards, it's time to ship em.

Fetchlands

Polluted Delta                35.15  +2.18

Windswept Heath        29.31   +1.07
Flooded Strand             29.42   +2.65
Wooded Foothills        24.68   +4.33
Bloodstained Mire       19.29    +1.31
Scalding Tarn                14.81   +1.56
Misty Rainforest          13.52   +1.84
Arid Mesa                     11.54     -0-
Verdant Catacombs      11.13   -0.93

Marsh Flats                   11.13     -0-

So remember how I have been saying for a while now that you should invest in fetchlands? Well here's the proof! 7 of the 10 fetchlands went up in value, and the bottom 3 will be ascending soon. I expect the Onslaught fetchlands to mainly stay still, although Bloodstained mire may go up another 2 or 3, and I expect the Zendikar fetches to go into the 15-20 range. These are all fantastic cards to trade for given the opportunity.

Modern Staples

Blazing Shoal                    14.70
Disrupting Shoal              12.76
Vesuva                               34.34
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker  11.83
Vendillion Clique              35.77
Dark Confidant                 51.36
Tarmogoyf                        101.61
Pact of Negation               20.59
Arcbound Ravager          23.29
Mutavault                         32.11
Cryptic Command            15.26

I expect the shoals`to come down to the 9 range in the weeks to come. There are rumors that Cloudpost could get banned in Modern, but I don't believe it. The deck was very effectively hated out, and the deck did very poorly overall, despite being popular. Kiki-Jiki just got reprinted, but that hasn't stopped this card's value from soaring thanks to it's PT victory. Vendillion Clique, Dark Confidant, Mutavalut, and Cryptic Command didn't even see play in the top 8, yet they all still champion premium prices. I wouldn't be suprised to see them go down a little bit in the future. Tarmogoyf if good, but it's not $100 good in my opinion. He is selling for 75-80 on eBay, but I expect his price to come down very soon.

That's what I'm sitting on this month, there are a few very interesting cards in Innistrad, but I'm going to wait until the entire set is released before I do a financial review on it, so look forward to that next month! Until next time, Stay Classy!

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