Power vs Consistancy: Modern Infect Combo

Hello everybody! PT Philly is a fantastic competition that's entering into the final round as I type this (though I expect this will get finally posted after it's all done because I will be glued to the webcast). One breakout deck of the weekend has been the infect combo that stems from Blazing Shoal:

Basically, you attack with an infect creature, and when they declare no blockers you cast Blazing Shoal via the alternate casting cost by exiling a high casting cost red card such as Progenitus, Reaper King, or Dragonstorm. This deck has been a huge breakout spectacle and it's prime card has EXPLODED in price. Here are the TCG mediums:

Since printing (February 4th, 2005) --> September 1st, 2011: less than $1
September 2nd, 2011: $5.43
September 3rd, 2011: $7.80
September 4th, 2011: $10.07

If you happen to have a few of these in your possesion, sell them NOW!! There is no better time you will ever be able to make money on this stupid bulk rare. I feel this card will drop to 5-7 in the coming weeks and months. Over the weekend this card went from a card you couldn't even give away to one people are now going to seek out in binders. I would like to take this moment to quickly beat my chest for buying a set of Disrupting Shoals at 25 cents a piece a month ago, just in case they got popular with modern. That $1 investment should do very well for me as Disrupting Shoal is $5.85 on TCG medium each, meaning it's now worth $23.4.

But even though I probably won't be making this deck myself, this provides a grand opportunity to compare 2 different decks that utilized this combo: Mono-Blue and Green/Black

These 2 decks share these 12 cards:

1x Reaper King (or Progenitus)
1x Pact of Negation
2x Gitaxian Probe
4x Blazing Shoal
4x Inkmoth Nexus

You can see we have the manland, Gitaxian Probe to see your opponent's hand, Pact of Negation to protect the combo, and then the combo itself. Now the other 40 cards in each deck (minus some land) support the combo in 2 very different ways. There is a question that comes up if not right up front, then subtly in the back of your mond: power vs consistancy. Combo decks can be incredibly powerful, but sometimes you have to sacrifice your consistancy to be more powerful. Think about the Charbelcher deck. It runs 1 land! Talk about all in! The deck is stupidly powerful because the only turn it wins on is turn 1, but it is the least consistant deck you may ever see. Compare that to a more consistant combo deck like Painted Stone, where it win as early as turn 1 or 2, but usually waits a couple more turns to tutor out the whole combo with cards like Goblin Welder and Intuition.

The Green/Black version of this deck exemplifies power, played by Martin Juza who finished 181st:
Official Deck Tech

4x Glistener Elf
1x Vector Asp
4x Progenitus
4x Reaper King

4x Pact of Negation
4x Slaughter Pact
2x Summoner's Pact
4x Gitaxian Probe
4x Inquisition of Kozelik
4x Spoils of the Vault
4x Blazing Shoal
4x Plunge into Darkness

3x Forest
4x Inkmoth Nexus
2x Overgrown Tomb
3x Swamp
1x Twilight Mire
4x Verdant Catacombs

This deck can possibly be consistant, but only if it already has a threat on board. The tutors for the deck: Spoils of the Vault and Plunge into Darkness come at a VERY steep price. A deck like Zoo can completely eat up that opportunity with a Wild Nacatl and a Lightning Helix. But what do you get by going so hell-bent onto this plan? A deck that could win on turn 2, or sit and do nothing after your opponent casts Path to Exile or any other removal spell....

Compare that to the mono-blue version played by Sam Black who finished 3rd:
Official Deck Tech

4x Blighted Agent
1x Reaper King

1x Pact of Negation
1x Summoner's Pact
2x Gitaxian Probe
4x Ponder
4x Preordain
4x Spell Pierce
4x Blazing Shoal
3x Disrupting Shoal
4x Muddle the Mixture
4x Peer Through Depths
1x Snapback
4x Dragonstorm

4x Inkmoth Nexus
8x Island
4x Misty Rainforest
2x Tolaria West
1x Watery Grave

This is clearly a VERY consistant deck. 4 each of Ponder, Preordain, Peer Through Depths, and Muddle the Mixture, alongside 2 Tolaria West and a Summoner's Pact means this deck does the same things every time. This deck still has the opportunity for the nut draw that the GB version has with a turn 1 Inkmoth Nexus, turn 2 kill with Pact of Negation backup. However, when that plan A doesn't go as planned, this deck is far more consistant in the long run. Sam Black's inability to draw a Blazing Shoal in game 5 of the semi's against Wraptor was the exception, not the rule. He saw 15-20 cards, shuffled his deck and saw another 15-20 and still didn't get it... That's just bad luck, not a bad deck. If he ever got it, he would have straight up won.

Another subtle example of consistancy in this deck is the use of Blighted Agent and Inkmoth Nexus as the threats of choice: they both have evasion, which can't be said of Glistener Elf or Vector Asp. By making the changes to the deck, I would say the blue deck loses 1-3 turns on the GB deck, but it will almost never fizzle, which GB absolutely can't say for itself. Overall, it is very easily stated that the mono-blue deck is the far better version of the Infect Combo deck due to it's increased consistany.

The lesson we can all take away from this is that it's very important to establish how our deck sits on the power vs consistancy scale. Are we doing too much Ponder-type action to prevent us form actually killing in a timely mannor? Are we playing a deck like Kuldotha Red which even it's "nut draws" attacked for 5 on turn 2, then scooped to Pyroclasm. What's the sweet spot for our deck to fall into?

Congratulations to Samuele Estratti for winning PT Philly! His Splinter Twin deck is another example of a very consistant combo deck with many redundant parts (Deceiver Exarch - Pestermite, Splinter Twin - Kiki-Jiki) and control magic to win at just the right opportunity. If you want to go beat this deck going forwards, let me quickly suggest Night of Soul's Betrayal. You're welcome. Until next time, stay classy!

Ryan Lackie
Ryan.Lackie92@gmail.com
@ThingsILack