January 2011 Secondary Market Update

Hello and welcome to 2011! I hope you all enjoyed your new years parties, I know I certainly did headbanging to Skillet and Family Force 5 (my neck still really hurts). In the past month we had the World Championships, and Pro Tours always have a mjor impact on cards values (Stoneforge Mystic was a $1 crap rare until LSV used it to go 16-0 at Pro Tour: San Diego, now it's $8-9). I will be using TCGPlayer's average prices on their price guide to ensure the most accurate numbers. Also, any change of less than a quarter will be listed as -0- as to not get in the way. So let's get to the cards!

Scars of Mirroden

Koth of the Hammer             27.91     -2.08
Venser, the Sojounor            18.67     -0.32
Mox Opal                            16.70      +2.71
Elspeth Tirel                         15.81     +0.82
Molten Tail Masticore           13.73     -1.26
Wurmcoil Engine                   11.06      -0-
Sword of Body and Mind     10.10      +1.11
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon    9.87       +0.88
Lux Cannon                           3.73       -0-
Indominable Archangel          3.29        +0.30
Platinum Emporion                 2.16        -0-
Geth, Lord of the Vault          2.08      +0.59
Mindslaver                             1.88      +0.39
Liege of the Tangle                1.76        +0.27
Quicksilver Gargantuan          1.12       +0.63

The 2 big movers this month were the dropping of Koth, which is still a result from the pre-release price being $50 for no real reason at all. I recently acquired 5 at 20 a piece, and I have already been able to move 2 of them (although I think that I may keep the other 3 in case he gets good again). The other big mover was Mox Opal going up to almost 17 again. This is because of the Extended Steel Artifact deck (couldn't they have come up with a less stupid name for that deck?) that plays 3 Moxes. Regarding the Planeswalkers, I think Koth will settle close to 25 while Venser rests at 17 or 18, and Elspeth will stay right where she is (Yes, I was quite wrong in last month's prediction for her).

Magic 2011

Primeval Titan                 39.58      +2.59
Grave Titan                     22.43       +7.44
Frost Titan                      17.48      -2.51
Baneslayer Angel            14.31      +0.32
Inferno Titan                   8.00        -0.99
Garruk Wildspeaker        7.48         +0.49
Jace Beleran                    7.38         +0.39
Sun Titan                         6.15        -0-
Demon of Death's Gate    5.74       +4.75
Ajani Goldmane               4.71        +1.72 (from November)
Gaea's Revenge               4.70        -0.29
Lilliana Vess                    4.21         +0.72
Chandra Nalaar              2.93         +0.94
Platinum Angel                2.23          -0-
Time Reversal                  1.59         +0.31 (from November)

Now you may first be thinking "Wow! Grave Titan has exploded in price!" because it increased by 50%, but you're missing the big story: Demon of Death's Gate went from a back and a half bulk mythic to Vampire's perfect answer to the Valakut menace and almost quadrupled in price! Since PV non-chalantly mentioned it at the end of his last article before worlds, Demon of Death's Gate has been receiving a lot of talk, and it's price shows it. Other notable movers are Prime Time and Frosty. As Valakut is regarded as a better deck (and also dominating Extended) Prime Time basks in glory, and Frosty doesn't do much against that deck, so it begins its road back to a reasonable price for its lack of getting played.

Rise of the Eldrazi
Vengevine                                  35.18       -0.81
Gideon Jura                               20.63       -9.36
Kargan Dragonlord                    14.30       +0.31
All Is Dust                                  13.78      +0.29
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre            10.43      +0.44
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn            9.62        +1.63
Kozelik, the Butcher of Truth      9.10        +1.11
Sarkhan the Mad                       7.07         +1.08
Linvala, Keeper of Silence          6.51        +0.52
Nirkana Revenant                      4.32         +1.33
Khalni Hydra                             3.83        +0.34
Transcendant Master                  3.80        +0.31
Lighthouse Chronologist             3.71          -0-
Cast Through Time                    0.95           -0-
Hellcarver Demon                      0.94          -0-

I think a lot of these price changes are a result of changing my price source, but all the changes were less than $2 except Gideon. Gideon is white's only good fatty right now to work as a finisher for UW Control, and is trumped by Grave Titan, which is why Gave Titan is more popular. I'm suprised Vengebine is still holding its nutty price despite not being played in any format. Since Survival's banning (still $40), there haven't been any big legacy events (its only been 13 days since the banning), but when they do happen, like the SCG Open in Kansas City on the weekend of the 8th, we will see what legacy is all about.

Worldwake
Jace, the Mind Sculptor          94.93    +0.94
Abyssal Persecutor                15.27     +0.28
Avenger of Zendikar              12.36     +1.37
Eye of Ugin                            3.63       -0-
Dragonmaster Outcast            3.49       -0.49
Omnath, Locus of Mana         3.33      -0.38
Admonition Angel                   2.59      -0-
Comet Storm                         2.10       -0-
Novablast Wurm                   1.29       +0.30
Wrexial, the Risen Deep         1.21       -0-

When will the Big Jace train stop? I'm guessing this card will rise in price about a buck a month steadily for another 6 months, then at $100 it may lower slightly as people try to get money back before it rotates out of Standard. Worldwake Boxes are going from $160 - $200 and I can't justify in my mind buying one. There are 3 money cards in Worldwake, and you get about 4.5 mythics per box. With 10 Mythics in Worldwake, that means you have a 45% chance of getting a Mythic of your choice (obviously Jace). Basically getting a Worldwake Box is a flip of a coin, heads you might break even, tails you epicly lose. There are 18 cards that you can not get for under a $1. In other words (35 rares * 2 rares per mythic) + 10 mythics = 80. One of the 18 cards is Tectonic Edge, and of the last 17, 8 are Mythics and 9 are rares.
(9 * 2) + 8 = 26 cards of the 80 that are worth at minimum a dollar or more
80 - 26 = 54 cards that are NOT worth a dollar or more
54/80 = 67.5% chance of getting a bulk rare
36 * 0.675 = 24.3 packs in your box with $1 rares
So after doing all that, figure you are only really getting 12 packs in your box, because the other 24 have bulk rares that you won't use. 12 packs for $160 - $200 is paying $13.33 - $16.66 per pack. Assuming you get a Jace, you are paying $65 - $105 for 11 packs, or $5.91 - $9.55 per pack. If you don't open a Jace (55% chance) you could open 10 Abyssal Persecutors (never going to happen) and still lose money. Even if you open a Jace, you are still probably going to lose money because you have to open both Avenger and Persecutor to get close to BREAKING EVEN. Just don't do it.

Zendikar
Lotus Cobra                          17.79       -0-
Eldrazi Monument                  16.05       -0.94
Sorin Markov                        11.36       +2.37
Nissa Revane                         9.42        +0.93
Iona, Shield of Emeria            6.06        -0.57
Chandra Ablaze                     3.72        -0-
Felidar Sovereign                   3.73        +0.74
Ob Nixilis, the Fallen              3.18        +0.69
Warren Instigator                   3.00        +0.51
Mindbreak Trap                     2.48       -0-
Rampaging Baloths                 2.45       +0.46
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet    1.97        +0.48
Obsidian Fireheart                 1.22        -0-
Eternity Vessel                       0.94       +0.45
Lorthos, the Tidemaker          0.84       +0.35

I think Sorin's price has jumped because it appeared as a one-of in the Sideboard for Guillaume Matignon, although Guillaume admitted himself he has no clue why it's there. Aside from that, everything is stable.


Here's something to think about for the prospective crowd: If you were to pre-order Mirroden Beseiged today, it costs $175 for the full set or $675 for a playset of the full set (saves $25). We will see where it goes as we approach previews in a week or 2. That's all for now, until next time, stay classy!