November 2011 Secondary Market Update

Hello everybody! If you enjoy these secondary market updates that I do monthly, you may be wondering where October went, to which I respond "I have no clue, but I wrote it..." I wrote up my October report last month, clicked "Publish Post" and instead of popping up on the front end of the blog, it just disappeared.... Awesome. Honestly, it can feel like a bit of a hassle to look up all the prices when I am uninspired (which I was last month) so I let it go to the way side. But fear not! I am back for November. It is important to note that these price changes will be against the September prices. Also, I don't have the hot-off-the-press Innistrad prices from last month, so I will include approx changes.

With that being said, all prices are TCGPlayer Medium, and any change of less than a dollar will be marked as -0-. Let's go!

Innistrad
Liliana of the Veil       45.60     -24.40
Snapcaster Mage        27.15      +2.15
Garruk Relentless       24.23       -0-
Geist of Saint Traft     18.52      +5.52
Skaab Ruinator           9.74       -10.26
Stromkirk Noble         8.52       +6.52
Army of the Damned  5.02      +2.02

This is obviously only a little bit of what is going on in Innistrad, but it's a fair sample size to work with. Notable cards left off the list are the Dual Lands, but those will slowly deflate in value as the cards get drafted more, but probably not by more than a buck. They will be forever in demand. One thing to note for long term is they have generic enough names to be printed in a core set which would attack their value. As for the mentioned cards above: Liliana is probably going to be a $30 card, it's just going to take a while to get there. However the card has appeared as a 1-of in legacy decks like Team America and UB Control where it is a 3 mana edict effect with bonus value, reminiscent of Gatekeeper, but with a less restrictive mana cost. Garruk is good, but not 25 good. I think his value will remain inflated as long as Garruk Primal Hunter sees play just like Baby Jace did to attack Jace TMS back in the day (though a stream of dudes is less devastating than a resolved Jace 2.0). Snapcaster Mage is obviously the card in the set with the most longevity as it is already a 4-of in Legacy and it can only get better over time. It's value will drop down to as low as 20 eventually so if you don't need him immediatly you can wait, but then his value will go up to 45 or 50 within 5 years, so he isn't a bad investment for the future.  Skaab Ruinator is a cool card to tinker with, but his price is suffocating because it is so hard to make work (Abyssal Persecutor). Stromkirk Noble is merely ok in RDW. I have heard a lot of people talking about how Goblin Arsonist or Fireslinger is better because it is an absolute guarantee to turn on Bloodthirst whereas T1 Noble looks like a fool against T1 Llanowar Elves. I would say Noble isn't where you want to be right now (also don't forget Goblin Grenade is in standard!!). And finally an odd card that I think is simply fantastic: Army of the Damned. This card is INSANE in UB Control. Against a control deck sweepers like Slagstorm and Day of Judgement don't do a whole lot, so they tend to get sided out. Knowing this, Army of the Damned is a sweet finisher as it is simply a diversification of threats. Flashback is really nice too as a little 2-for-1 never hurts in the control mirror. I was surprised when I saw it at 5, and I'm sure I can get them at 2.

Magic 2012

Garruk, Primal Hunter          38.62   +12.14
Jace, Memory Adept            23.40    -5.72
Primeval Titan                      14.18     -0-
Chandra, the Firebranded     13.86    -8.97
Gideon Jura                         13.54     -3.45
Angelic Destiny                   12.26    +3.26
Phantasmal Image                11.24     -0-
Solemn Simulcrum              9.45      -2.08
Grave Titan                           8.97      -0-
Sun Titan                               8.70     +2.70

There has been a  TON of moving parts in the M12 financial world. Primeval Titan technically "hasn't moved" in the past 2 months, but last month it was in the 11 range, so there actually was a dip in price for a month. I said Prime Time would drop to 5 by Christmas because I thought there weren't any degenerate things in the new standard, but I didn't give Kessig Wolf Run the light of day. It's even the same colors as Valakut! But smacking myself in the head aside (I WILL do a mega report on Dark Ascension), I think the card will drop to the 8-10 range. Along with that card, Garruk Relentless is a card I can't see sustaining this high of a value for long. Sure it's good, but not $40 good. I would say were looking at a $20-25 planeswalker here. The only reason to play big Garruk over little is the -3 ability, which is insane, but I think he may be a little slow for long term. Jace, on the other hand won't be dropping below 15 for at least a year, but I can see him also staying just above 20. A resolved Jace in the control mirror is automatically game over as he is a 3 turn clock that doesn't die to spot removal. I played him in Vengeance against Solar Flare and UB Control and I can't tell you how insane he is! Just drawing an extra card every turn as a + ability is good, and I have +ed him to 7 then milled my opponent to death (with a 1 turn shorter clock by making them draw 20). Chandra will join her other clones down at 5 or so, Gideon is chillin at 12, and Angelic Destiny will slide back to 10 or 11. Everything Else is stable.

New Phyrexia

Sword of War and Peace           19.36    +2.02
Phyrexian Obliterator               16.13    -5.18
Karn Liberated                          13.19    -1.70
Batterskull                                 13.04    -0-
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite     9.82    +4.23
Spellskite                                   9.41    -0-
Birthing Pod                              9.28     -0-
Phyrexian Metamorph               6.78    -0- 

There has been surprisingly few movements in New Phyrexia, though Elesh Norn makes sense, as a double Curse of Death's Hold + double Glorious Anthem + 4/7 Vigilance is simply nutty! I play this card in Reanimator and Dredge, and it is simply insane! The card auto-beats Merfolk, Dredge, Goblins, Elves, Zoo, and basically any deck that attacks with creatures. Caleb Durward is using Phyrexian Obliterator in a new Legacy brew that is yet to be unveiled, but I don't think that will do enough to save the card's value. I think Sword of War and Peace is the best Sword in standard right now as it gets through all the W/x decks and puts them on a fast clock. Birthing Pod isn't seeing any play right now, and I have dumped off my foil one as soon as I had a moment, and the rest are soon to follow. With Ancient Grudge in the format, there's little reason to play artifacts, never mind making it the centerpiece of your whole deck!

Mirroden Beseiged

Sword of Feast and Famine   38.59   +14.00
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas       18.42    -7.38
Inkmoth Nexus                       16.83   +5.25

Consecrated Sphinx               14.91      -0-
Hero of Bladehold                  14.76   +5.48
Thrun, the Last Troll             14.49    +6.76

Hero of Oxid Ridge               10.70     +4.20

Green Sun's Zenith                 7.86       -0-

 

As with many SoM block cards, these cards have been slowly ascending. For the longest time, I didn't think Inkmoth would ever budge in price, then it rose to 15 and I thought it was done there and traded for my set. And now all of a sudden its at 17 and still rising. A comparable card is Mutavault which is currently sitting at 30. I don't think were looking at a $30 card here, but maybe 20-22 isn't out of the question. I can't see these cards continuing to rise for too long, but I think another buck or two all around is likely.

Scars of Mirroden

Elspeth Tirel                               25.73    +14.98
Mox Opal                                   21.44   -0-

Koth of the Hammer                  21.36   -0-
Wurmcoil Engine                       21.34   +11.36
Venser, the Sojounor                 16.14   -0-
Seachrome Coast                       12.79  +5.17

Darkslick Shores                        11.99
Sword of Body and Mind          11.65  -0-
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon       9.66     +2.55

Razorverge Thicket                    9.35

Copperline Gorge                       8.40

Blackcleave Cliffs                      5.05

 

There is a whole lot of rising prices here, especially with the dual lands! I remember all of those going at 2-4 just 9 or 10 months ago! But that was then and this is now. A card I think should get dumped off is Wurmcoil Engine. I have heard people talking about cutting Wurmcoil in GR Wolf Run in lieu of Inferno Titan, which feels like the same cycle of fatties that Valakut went through as the aggro decks that could outrace it started showing up. Inferno Titan destroys the board, and then wins in just 2 turns by itself (never mind the rest of the army that Wolf Run has that Valakut didn't). One bit of relevant information I just re-learned about is that the next Duel Decks is Koth vs Venser, so if you don't need the cards right now for your decks, they are a good idea to let go of as their value will drop come next March. I can't see many of these cards going much higher, though i expect another buck or two out of all the duals.

 

That's all i have today! Until next time, Stay Classy!

Ryan Lackie

Ryan.Lackie92@gmail.com

@ThingsILack