May 2011 Secondary Market Update

Hello everyone! A ton has happened this past month in the multiverse, obviously including the spoiling of New Phyrexia. This has led to a whole lot of financial insanity like $9 crap rares and such! As always, I will be using the TCG Player medium ratings on these cards, and any changes less than a quarter over the past month will be listed as -0-

New Phyrexia

Karn Liberated                        40.40
Batterskull                               27.99
Phyrexian Obliterator               24.54
Sword of War and Peace         23.84
Surgical Extraction                   10.68
Urabrask the Hidden                6.52
Puresteel Paladin                      5.59
Hex Parasite                             4.83
Mental Misstep                         3.96
Sheoldred, Whispering One      3.92
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur           3.65
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite     3.88
Vorinclex, voice of Hunger       3.31
Etched Monstrosity                  2.93

As we have seen with every new set as it comes out, every single card on this list is going to go down. So from a purely financial standpoint, we should sell every card we get. However, let's look at the biggest ofenders first: Karn, Phyrexian Obliterator, and Surgical Extraction. I believe all of these will quickly halve in price (Surgical Extraction will probably just go to 7). Karn is just a hyped up planeswalker (read: Venser, Elspeth, Koth) who won't actually see insane amounts of play, and Phyrexian Obliterator just doesn't get there against control decks. That being said he absolutely destroys red deck, and Vengevine decks to a lesser degree. However, right now there is a current extreme domination of Caw-Blade in the current meta and Obliterator doesn't get there against them. If you want to kill control/jace with your mono-black deck, Lashwrite does much more, as it can't be controlled by Jace -1. Lastly, Surgical Extraction is good, but only against Vengevine in Standard, and in Legacy he just doesn't beat out Extirpate... Moving forwards, Batterskull is a great card to have if you are playign Caw-Blade right now, but if you aren't like me, then the plan is to ship every copy ASAP because this is losing serious value after rotation. It will probably float around 20 until rotation, then drop to 10 or less after that. Sword of War and Peace is only good against Boros and mono-red, and because of that, I expect this card to drop $7 down to about 17. It will see more play than BaM, but less than FaF. One card that can actually possibly go up is Urabrask the Hidden. Big Red is only going to get better as it has some sweet proliferation spells, and now Urabrask can make your Inferno Titan stupidly powerful. The only other cards I see in this list going up is Jin-Gitaxias almost doubling up to 6, and Sheolred sliding up to 5 supported purely by EDH. It's funny seeing Mental Misstep on this list, but chase uncommons are good to watch out for.

Mirroden Beseiged

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas        39.71  -5.78
Sword of Feast and Famine   25.32  -0.42
Inkmoth Nexus                      9.88   -1.12
Blightsteel Colossus               8.64   -1.91
Thrun, the Last Troll               8.50  -3.10
Hero of Oxid Ridge               7.35   -1.31
Green Sun's Zenith                7.12   -0.79
Hero of Bladehold                 6.62   -0.69
Massacre Wurm                   4.46   -0.26
Consecrated Sphinx              3.98   -0.30
Glissa the Traitor                   2.76
Praetor's Council                  1.92   -0.28

Well I hope I made it obvious to you with my excessive use of red text, you really can't collect Standard cards, sit on them, and wait to accumulate value on them. Everything is just going down until a random card explodes, then things pop up and down to match said card, then everything goes back to normal with everything going down or stabelizing. As for where to go with this information: Tezzeret is probably going to continue losing value, and I can see him going all the way down to 25 in the next month or 2 unless another insane deck breaks out with him at the epicenter. FaF is still a perfectly safe card to sit on, but Inkmoths and Blightsteels (especially Blightsteel) should get shipped if you have any extra. Darksteel Colossus is a $3.55 card, so I expect Blightsteel to sit at 4 or 5. The one card that I am very suprised to see sink in value is Hero of Oxid Ridge. I have had those fly into and out of the binder at 9 each, and no one is concerned about it. I think that guy will get bumped back up to 8 or 9 in short due time, as he is simply insane!

Scars of Mirroden

Koth of the Hammer             24.71  +1.99
Mox Opal                            21.60  -0.65
Sword of Body and Mind     13.58   -0-
Venser, the Sojounor            12.73  -0.44
Elspeth Tirel                         11.68   -0.81
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon   11.50  +1.00
Wurmcoil Engine                   9.23   -0.44
Darkslick Shores                  5.71
Ratchet Bomb                      5.35     -0-
Molten Tail Masticore          5.11   -0.79
Lux Cannon                          3.28    -0-
Indominable Archangel         2.32     -0-
Platinum Emporion               2.03     -0-
Mindslaver                           1.78     -0-
Geth, Lord of the Vault        1.44     -0-
Liege of the Tangle               1.27     -0-
Quicksilver Gargantuan        1.04     -0-

Well... theres not a lot of change to discuss here, but there are a few cards that I think are worthwhile talking about for future changes, starting with Koth. Thanks to the red/"red" proliferate spells in Tezzeret's Gambit and Volt Charge, I think Big Red will be a much better deck after NPH gets released. Koth is much better in that deck than in my goblins deck, although he is still a house there too. With red gaining access to proliferate, Koth can ultimate the turn after he comes into play, like Garruk except Koth's ultimate is far scarier. Venser is apparently really big in block, although I haven't spent more than 15 seconds watching games of block on MODO, so I really can't be sure. If he is though, that typically reflects that he will be a major player in next Standard season (and everyone will whine about his ultimate being too powerful and how he should be banned...). Aside from that theres not a lot going on. I don't know why Elspeth is still over 10, but she is still almost losing a dollar a month, so she will get there soon.

Magic 2011

Primeval Titan                    30.39  -2.99
Grave Titan                       14.47   -2.37
Inferno Titan                      14.21   +2.59
Baneslayer Angel               11.58  -0.59
Jace Beleran                       9.58    -0-
Garruk Wildspeaker          7.25    -0.25
Frost Titan                         7.03   -1.85
Fauna Shaman                   6.97   -0.50
Sun Titan                           6.40   +0.39
Lilliana Vess                      5.46   +0.67
Knight Exemplar                5.27   -0.45
Ajani Goldmane                 5.04    -0-
Gaea's Revenge                 3.81   -0.41
Demon of Death's Gate     3.48   -0.67
Chandra Nalaar                 2.90   -0-
Platinum Angel                   2.32   -0-
Time Reversal                   1.31    -0-

And in this month's episode of the Meta shift, we see how Valakut is getting pwned by Caw-Blade and how Caw-Blade loses hard to Inferno Titan! Grave Titan is also simply the wrong color to be in a world dominated by Sword of Feast and Famine. Sun Titan and Frost Titan have never been that good (Frosty was all hype, props to those who cashed on it). Baneslayer Angel is reportedly not being reprinted in M12, so that is a good card to move now if your not using them. Lilliana Vess has been gaining 50-75 cents a month for a while now, which is very interesting, but she is another good card to move. She isn't getting reprinted in M12 as well, and there is probably an alternate version getting printed in Innistrad. I think she has hit her peak, or may go up to 6, but then its flattening or going downhill. There is a whopping 1 knight named Puresteel Paladin in New Phyrexia, so don't expect any new love for Knight Exemplar.

Rise of the Eldrazi


Gideon Jura                            34.27   +0.34
Vengevine                              29.45    -1.89
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre        10.88      -0-
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn        10.26    +0.26
Kozelik, the Butcher of Truth   9.94       -0-
Kargan Dragonlord                 9.90     -1.88
Splinter Twin                          9.56
All Is Dust                              9.18     -1.69
Linvala, Keeper of Silence      7.60      -0-
Sarkhan the Mad                    6.41      -0-
Student of Warfare                 5.53    -0.52
Nirkana Revenant                   5.48      -0-
Inquisition of Kozelik              5.29    +1.30
Khalni Hydra                          4.65      -0-
Lighthouse Chronologist         4.63       -0-
Transcendant Master              3.92      -0-
Hellcarver Demon                   0.95     -0-
Cast Through Time                 0.95      -0-

Gideon Jura is an incredibly powerful card right now, but from a financial perspective, its a hard card to hang on to without good reason. He is probably getting reprinted in M12, which means that his price is going down. If he gets reprinted exactly as is, there will be a heavily increased supply, but that may not change his price if his demand is still high. However, there is no true control deck right now besides UB, which is only seeing fringe play, so Gideon's value play-wise is the highest now that it's ever been. If a new Gideon is printed, then Gideon Jura's value WILL drop. Look at the Elspeths. Knight-Errant is far superior to Tirel, but is down to 14.86 compared to the 30/40 she used to be. She is even getting played in Extended.... The cards that will sustain their value the best for the long term are the 3 Legendary Eldrazi. Emrakul, being the most powerful creature ever printed, is a Legacy staple in Show & Tell and Sneak Attack decks. Kozilik and Ulamog hold some epic casual appeal, and those 2 are legal in Commander, so they will be seing play there too. Splinter Twin is the most important card to know about in this month's update. With all the excitement over the new Pestermite varient in the form of Deceiver Exarch, Splinter Twin went up in value 20-fold! Please note: this is pure hype and this card will settle down to $6 fast, then slowly calm down back to a 2 or 3, a la Demon of Death's Gate. One more non-mythic of note is Inquisition of Kozelik. This card saw a serious increase in price with the popularity of the DarkBlade as the key to defeating traditional UW Caw-Blade. I think this card has a little hyped, but I can't see this going below 5 any time soon, especially with the steriod shot in the arm black mages are getting with this next set. Uncommons are typically not on people's radars when it comes to trading, so you may be able to pick these up cheap, but also be vigilent to move these fast.

Worldwake


Jace, the Mind Sculptor      90.43  -8.76
Stoneforge Mystic              23.28  -0.40
Avenger of Zendikar          9.75     -1.32
Abyssal Persecutor             9.44   -2.09
Creeping Tar Pit                 8.68   +0.91
Kalastria Highborn             5.62    -0.92
Basilisk Collar                    5.00     -0-
Dragonmaster Outcast        4.20     -0-
Omnath, Locus of Mana     3.85     -0-
Eye of Ugin                        2.55   -0.29
Admonition Angel               2.33    -0-
Comet Storm                     1.66     -0-
Novablast Wurm                1.16    -0-
Wrexial, the Risen Deep    1.10     -0-

WOW! Someone is going to need to order Jace a shrink because he is bound to have some hard self-esteem issues after seeign this. After just leveling off and dropping 50 cents last month, Jace lost almost a tenth of his value this month. People haven't stopped giving me crap when I have told them how I think Jace will lose significant value after he is released from Standard, but will bounce back to a $60 card in the long run, but this is the initial proof that my theory is right. Stoneforge Mystic, on the other hand, is a tough nut to crack. Her value will go down, but how far is the question... This leads me to have to look at the other Legacy tutors. Enlightened Tutor is the most expensive, sitting at 14.36. Stoneforge is much worse than Enlightened Tutor because of the increased mana cost, the lack of flash, and the restriction in what it can tutor. HOWEVER, it does have the advantage of the Aether Vial style ability to ensure the equipment hits play, and that the card goes to your hand as opposed to replacing the draw step. As enticing as that additional ability is, it does not make it any more valuable than Enlightened Tutor. I think the Legacy price for this card is $8, and that might be generous. The last card that is moving is Abyssal Persecutor. This card has slowly risen and fallen as the hype went up and down, but this guy never put up results. It's tough being a non-hasty 4-drop in the same set as Jace... He has never been a safe investment, and now people are actually realizing how bad he sucks. I'm unfortunately sitting on one right now, and it is on the fast track to get rid of, pretty much regardless of what I'm offered.

Zendikar
Lotus Cobra                        15.83  -1.52
Scalding Tarn                      13.59   +0.39
Verdant Catacombs             12.45    -0-
Misty Rainforest                   12.33  +0.34
Arid Mesa                            12.20   -0-
Marsh Flats                          11.71  +0.35
Sorin Markov                       11.31  -0.38
Eldrazi Monument                 8.82    -2.64
Bloodghast                           8.14     -0-
Nissa Revane                       8.08    -1.03
Goblin Guide                        7.64    -0.78
Iona, Shield of Emeria           6.24    -0-
Chandra Ablaze                   4.39     -0-
Felidar Sovereign                 4.00     -0-
Warren Instigator                  2.95    -0-
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet   2.74    -0-
Ob Nixilis, the Fallen            2.58     -0-
Rampaging Baloths               2.52    -0-
Mindbreak Trap                  2.49     -0-
Obsidian Fireheart               1.16     -0-
Eternity Vessel                     0.96     -0-
Lorthos, the Tidemaker        0.83     -0-

Lotus Cobra is the face of the RUG deck which was supposed to be the saving grce against the Caw-Blade Menace, then the Mortarpod tech was released and that all went downhill too. Without the Cobra, RUG dies, and without RUG, Cobra can't hold value. Thankfully, no one seems to know about this loss of value, and I just traded off all of mine at 18 a piece. In other relevant news, while no one is aware of the cobra losing value, apparently no one can accept that fetches are gaining value. I had quite the meltdown of a trade the other day that would have been avoided if a 3rd party didn't declare that all the fetches were exactly 10 eac. That lead to the guy I was trading with to say that Marsh Flats was only 8, which hasn't been true since M11 came out.... To say the least, if people are still valuing fetches at 10 in your area, go get them, even the "bad" ones are 11 or more. Let's take a look at how the Onslaught fetches are doing, as they are an indicator of where the ZEN ones are headed:

Polleted Delta         29.99
Windswept Heath   28.14
Flooded Strand       25.32
Wooded Foothills   20.77
Bloodstained Mire  17.59

Yeah, these ZEN fetches are going to go up for a long time, these Onslaught ones still are! My pick for long term rankings in value for the ZEN fetches puts Misty Rainforest as the most expensive in the very long term.

That's all I have for this month! Until next time, stay classy!