Rare? Mythically Rare? An Evaluation of Rarity & the Secondary Market

Magic, formally known as Magic: The Gathering was printed by Wizards of the Coast for the first time in 1993 with a set known as Limited Edition Alpha. By the end of 1993, WotC had also released Limited Edition Beta and Arabian Nights. Immediatly, the game was immensly popular, as it was also a brand new type of game that hadn't been capitalized upon before (initially the game wasn't even advertised because WotC didn't have enough product to keep up with the demand without advertising). In 1996, WotC started the Pro Tour, which has only increased in popularity through the years.

When Magic was first created, it was designed to be a CCG, or a collectable card game. In booster packs, you would open 11 common cards, 3 uncommon cards, and a rare card. Both from the need to complete your sets, and from the power level of many cards, a huge secondary market erupted that was initially unanticipated. Cards that were made rare were supposed to actually be rare and in turn be used a lot less in decks. Some rares in particular that were deemed incredibly powerful became what is now known as the power 9.

Moving from origins to circa September 4th, 2010. Magic is recording it's biggest sales, players, and tournament attendance of all time. The secondary market is so huge, no one even thinks about it anymore as odd, but rather the norm. Mark Rosewater brought up the huge secondary market in an article a little bit ago discussing how originally a card was placed at rare to prevent someone from running 4x in a deck. They knew Black Lotus was very powerful when it was made, but they also doubted anyone would get 4 and put them all in the same deck. Nowadays, any card that is printed is simply expected to show up as a 4x in a deck. More Magic product is being printed now than ever, and if some people can assemble 4x Underground Sea, an original dual land whose Alpha version costs $1000, than anyone can assemble 4x Jace, the Mind Sculptor as long as they are willing to pay for it.

The secondary market is a topic frequently discussed, depated, and predicted upon. With the introduction of Mythic Rares in Shards of Alara in 2008, one topic of discussion that has always been prevelont is the cost of mythics and how they are messing with the secondary market. So roll up your sleeves, were going to look straight at the real numbers and decide for ourselves!

First, here is a list of all mythics printed and today's price according to StarCityGames.com:
Shards of Alara
Ajani Vengeant - 8
Elspeth, Knight Errant - 30
Empyrial Archangel - 2.50
Godsire - 2.50
Hellkite Overlord - 2.50
Kresh the Bloodbraided - 1.50
Lich's Mirror - 2
Mayael the Anima - 1.50
Prince of Thralls - 1.50
Rafiq of the Many - 6
Sarkhan Vol - 10
Sedris, the Traitor Kind - 1.50
Sharuum the Hegemon - 2
Sphinx Sovereign - 1.50
Tezzeret the Seeker - 8

Conflux
Apocalypse Hydra - 2
Child of Alara - 2
Conflux - 1.50
Ethersworn Adjundicator - 1.50
Maelstrom Archangel - 3
Malfegor - 1.50
Mirror-Sigil Sergeant - 2
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker - 12
Progenitus - 8
Thornling - 2.50

Alara Reborn
Defiler of Souls - 1.50
Dragon Broodmother - 3
Jenera, Asura of War - 2.50
Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund - 2.50
Lord of Extinction - 2.50
Maelstrom Nexus - 1.50
Sen Triplets - 2
Sphinx of the Steel Wind - 7
Thraximunder - 2
Uril, the Miststalker - 2

Magic 2010
Ajani Goldmane - 6
Baneslayer Angel - 35
Bogardan Hellkite - 2
Chandra Nalaar - 3
Darksteel Colossus - 4
Garruk Wildspeaker - 7
Jace Beleran - 6
Liliana Vess - 4
Master of the Wild Hunt - 5
Platinum Angel - 2.50
Protein Hydra - 1.50
Sphinx Ambassador - 1.50
Time Warp - 8
Vampire Nocturnus - 10
Xathrid Demon - 2

Zendikar
Chandra Ablaze - 3
Eldrazi Monument - 10
Eternity Vessel - 1.50
Felidar Sovereign - 3
Iona, Shield of Emeria - 6
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet - 1.50
Lorthos, the Tidemaker - 2
Lotus Cobra - 18
Mindbreak Trap - 2
Nissa Revane - 6
Ob Nixilis, the Fallen - 2.50
Obsidian Fireheart - 1.50
Rampaging Baloths - 3
Sorin Markov - 10
Warren Instigator - 4

Worldwake
Abyssal Persecutor - 12
Admonition Angel - 3
Avenger of Zendikar - 8
Comet Storm - 2
Dragonmaster Outcast - 2.50
Eye of Ugin - 4
Jace, the Mind Sculptor - 85
Novablast Wurm - 1.50
Omnath, Locus of Mana - 2
Wrexial, the Risen Deep - 1.50

Rise of the Eldrazi
All Is Dust - 13
Cast Through Time - 1.50
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn - 8
Gideon Jura - 25
Hellcarver Demon - 2
Kargan Dragonlord - 12
Khalni Hydra - 4
Kozelik, Butcher of Truth - 8
Lighthouse Chronologist - 4
Linvala, Keeper of Silence - 8
Nirkana Revenant - 5
Sarkhan the Mad - 15
Transcendant Master - 4
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre - 8
Vengevine - 35

Magic 2011
[Cards same price as 2010: Chandra Nalaar, Garruk Wildspeaker, Jace Beleran, Liliana Vess, Platinum Angel]
Ajani Goldmane - 5
Baneslayer Angel - 30
Demon of Death's Gate -5
Frost Titan - 11
Gaea's Revenge - 6
Grave Titan - 30
Inferno Titan - 8
Primeval Titan - 50
Sun Titan - 10
Time Reversal - 8

Whew! What a list! As expected, the most rare cards printed right now often are more expensive to acquire. Here are what the sets averange mythic rare costs are:
Shards of Alara: 5.40
Conflux: 3.60
Alara Reborn: 2.65
Magic 2010: 6.5
Zendikar: 4.93
Worldwake: 12.15
-Worldwake w/out Jace TMS: 4.06
Rise of the Eldrazi: 10.17
Magic 2011: 12.37

I think all of the sets minus the last 2 are perfectly reasonable after removing Jace TMS. However, ROE and 2011 has shown us a smattering of lots of expensive Mythics. Opening a box of either of these sets can either completely rock or completely suck (even more dramatically so with Worldwake). Cut Gideon and Vengivine from the ROE list and the average falls from 10.17 to 7.12! Cut Primeval Titan, Grave Titan, and Baneslayer Angel from M11, and the average drops from 12.37 to 6.30!! 3 cards in M11 make up 59.3% of the entire 15! It is important to note though that while the numbers drop dramatically by removing a few outlying money cards, 6.3 and 7.12 are still on top of all the other sets (After cutting Baneslayer from M10, the average goes from 6.5 down to 4.46).

Before you get bogged down by the weight of these numbers, know that you don't actually have to buy all of these cards individually. I got a full playset of Primeval Titan (worth $200) for $70 through drafting and trading. Baneslayer Angel used to be worth $60 (and nicknamed the wallet slayer), but now it is half that price. Elspeth used to go for $40, but you can get her in the Duel Decks for $25.

BUT WAIT!!!! THERES MORE!!!

Mythics are effectively brand new to Magic still. In a month, we will have our very first mythic rare cards rotate out of standard. So how did people break the bank back in the old days? With rares. Heres a list of the top 8 rares from each standard set:

Shards of Alara
Ranger of Eos - 5
Hell's Thunder - 4
Master of Etherius - 4
Knight of the White Orchid - 3
Ethersworn Canonist - 3
Death Baron - 3
Sedraxis Specter - 2.50
Memory Erosion - 2

Conflux
Noble Hierarch - 10
Knight of the Reliquary - 10
Martial Coup - 4
Banefire - 3
Font of Mythos - 2.50
Master Transmuter - 2.50
Inkwell Leviathan - 2
Nyxathid - 2
Wall of Revenance - 2

Alara Reborn
Maelstrom Pulse - 10
Dauntless Escort - 3
Nemesis of Reason - 2.50
Sovereigns of Lost Alara - 2.50
Meddling Mage - 2
Thought Hemorrhage - 2
Time Sieve - 1.50
[all others $1 or less]

Magic 2010
Glacial Fortress, Drowned Catacomb, Dragonskull Summit - 5
Elvish Archdruid - 5
Elvish Piper - 4
Howling Mine - 4
Ball Lightning - 4
Birds of Paradise - 4
Rootbound Crag, Sunpetal Grove - 3
Siege-Gang Commander - 3

Zendikar
Fetch Lands - 12
Bloodghast - 6
Day of Judgement - 5
Goblin Guide - 5
Oracle of Mul Daya - 4
Malikar Bloodwitch - 3
Pyromancer Acension - 2.50
[all others $2 or less]


Worldwake
Raging Ravine - 5
Stoneforge Mystic - 5
Celestial Connelaide - 4.50
Basilisk Collar - 4
Creeping Tar Pit, Lavaclaw Reaches, Stirring Wildwood - 2.50
Kalestria Highborn - 2
Lodestone Golem - 2
[all others $1.50 or less]

Rise of the Eldrazi
Awakening Zone - 4
Consuming Vapors - 4
Coralhelm Commander - 4
Eldrazi Temple - 4
Student of Warfare - 4
Training Grounds - 2
Eldrazi Conscription - 2
Guul Draz Assassin - 2

Magic 2011
Fauna Shaman - 15
Obstinate Baloth - 8
Day of Judgement - 5
Phylactery Lich - 5
Serra Ascendant - 5
Steel Overseer - 5
Knight Exemplar - 5
Leyline of Sanctity - 5
Destructive Force - 5
[there are 3 other cards at $4, not including option lands]

At first, you may be shocked/mad that M11 has the most expensive rares AND mythics, but remember, the set just came out, so it is new to the world still.

It is also important ot note that commons and uncommons can also hold serious value. For example, Path to Exile and Bloodbraid Elf are both $4 cards. Even a common, Lightning Bolt, costs $1.25.

So if players are expected at this point to gain access to any cards they want, why even make different rarities? There are 2 reasons: one is for limited play. How rediculous would it be if there was 2 of each titan all in the same draft? Draft decks and sealed decks would be comparable to constructed decks, and that's just weird. The second reason, going back to ecnomics, is that rarities, especially mythic, ensure more packs will be sold. 1 in 8 booster packs have a mythic in them, and the notion that any of these booster before you could have an incredible epic card in it is something most people can't resist.

But here is where the secondary market comes in! Let's say you really want to buy Jace TMS, but don't want to spend $85 on SCG for him. Statistically speaking, you would have to buy 80 boosters to open 1 Jace, TMS (1/8 booster = mythic, 10 mythics in Worldwake). 80 x 4 = $320 for boosters to open one $85 card. However, buying 80 individual boosters is dumb. Boxes cost less per booster, so when buyign a lot of product, the box is the way to go. $90 for 36 packs is $2.50 a pack as opposed to $4. However, even at $2.50 a pack, you would still spend $200 to get that one Jace TMS (and that's only statistically speaking, it's not a garuntee).

So what does this all mean? What am I rambling on towards? Well, basically how to be financially concious of your Magical endeavors. Buying a box is a great way to save money for packs (and I usually wind up splitting it with friends anyways), but to get specific cards, it is safer just to get them individually. However, After that box to get your base collection going for that set, playing limited (sealed or draft) isn't a bad idea to crack more packs and maybe even score you that bomb card. Even if you don't open the card you want, you could always trade for it too. I just made a bunch of awesome trades recently at Toys N Things with cards I thought no one would care for and I am looking forward to upgrading my decks with these innovations.

Almost all of the cards, except for M11, started at a higher price, and then slowly worked it's way down. So if you don't need the card RIGHT NOW and could wait a months or 2, do it, and you will be rewarded.

I kinda liked looking at all the prices of every card in standard, it made me realize how inexpensive most cards really are, I think I will do a market update every month or so from here on out. Before I sign off, I want to mention that a bunch of SoM spoilers were released over the weekend, and one card is already $45 for pre-order! But I will discuss that in my next post (later today?). Until then, keep on rocking in the free world