June 2011 Secondary Market Update

Hello everybody! I am terribly sorry I have not been able to post anything up for the past week or so. I had a full GP Providence report written while sitting around with nothing to do at work, and right as I was about to post it, my computer replaced the whole thing with "r" and then auto-saved. It's like when you have the stone cold nuts draw, but then you topdeck 15 lands straight and just lose. I didn't really have anything super crazy to talk about, but there were endless hilarious stories, and it was a rush to see Pro Players whose articles I simply can't get enough of like PV and Chapin.

But that's not what this post is about, this is my monthly monetary update. Standard is the format with the most volital prices, but I haven't played Standard pretty much since SCG Boston, instead just trading for Legacy cards and building up a collection there. So while I have been only tracking Standard cards in these monthly updates, I want to change things up a little. Theres so many bulk mythics that are just a nusience to look up for me, and you probably don't even care about, that's it's not worth either of our times to list them. So I am just going to list the top 8 cards in every standard set and then point out a variety of significant legacy cards. So let's get to it! (as always, all prices are TCG medium)

New Phyrexia

Sword of War and Peace  24.63  +0.79
Batterskull                         22.35  -5.64
Karn Liberated                 22.24  -18.16
Phyrexian Obliterator        21.44  -3.10
Spellskite                          9.98
Urabrask the Hidden         6.22   -0.30
Surgical Extraction            5.98   -4.70
Mental Misstep                 4.74  +0.78

It's quite obvious how weak of a financial set New Phyrexia when you look at this list. Buying boxes in general is not a profitable endeavor, but when theres such a fast drop-off in price from 21 to 10 to 6, it's very easy to simply miss and open absolutely nothing. Spellskite exploded up in price this past month, and was about $1 at release. Now as we have seen with every set as it has come out, every card will be dropping in value for the next 2 months. I think the only exception to this to a degree will be Sword of War and Peace. For next month, I expect Sword will be at 20, Batterskull will go to 17, Karn to 17, Obliterator to 15, Spellskite to 8, Urabrask to 5.5, Surgical Extraction to 5, and Mental Misstep to 4.
 
Mirroden Beseiged

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas        33.39  -6.32
Sword of Feast and Famine   21.45  -3.87
Inkmoth Nexus                      10.23  +0.45
Thrun, the Last Troll              6.60    -1.90
Blightsteel Colossus               6.52    -2.12
Phyrexian Crusader               6.26
Hero of Oxid Ridge               6.02   -1.33
Hero of Bladehold                 6.01   -0.61

I had expected Tezzeret to go back to 35, but instead it's just kept on dropping, so it will be interesting to see where this card goes. Seeing as it's not seeing any play right now, I wouldn't be too suprised to see it go down to 25. When that does happen, you can garuntee I will be swooping in and scooping up as many copies of that card as I can, because I think Tezzeret will be the centerpiece of a sweet deck after Caw-Blade rotates out. I know I have been envisioning an artifact aggro deck along the same line as Legacy Affinity for a while now, and without Caw-Blade om nom noming on every tournament I think it will have its time in the limelight.

//I proceed to take a 5 day break from writing this post for no real reason//

Scars of Mirroden

Koth of the Hammer              24.05  -0.66
Mox Opal                             19.66  -1.94
Venser, the Sojounor             12.23 -0.50
Sword of Body and Mind      12.06  -1.52
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon    10.65 -0.85
Elspeth Tirel                          10.28  -1.40
Wurmcoil Engine                    8.34   -0.89
Darkslick Shores                   5.82     -0-

One card to note that didn't make the top 8 is Tempered Steel. For its entire life it has been a 2-3, but the most recent check on TCG Player puts it at 3.66, so it could be trending up. Koth is still the most expensive card in the set, and he will undoubtedly battle against Tezzeret as the most powerful aggressive planeswalker in standard post rotation. The only big anti-red deck hate that there is from Scars block is Batterskull (and kinda Sylvok Lifestaff), but both of those are easily dealt with by the likes of Crush and Manic Vandel varients. Also, Batterskull can't get cheated in by Stoneforge anymore, so the lifegain starts another 2 turns later, which red players should know is incredibly relevant. As I have said before, Mox Opal and Sword of Body and Mind are easily the long term keepers, as both saw lots of play at GP Providence (Sword of Body and Mind nicely gets you past Goyf and Merfolk while leaving back a blocker so you can play offense and defense). Unfortunately for Skithryx, he will probably never ascend to the top tables, and we have Dismember to blame. No one was playing Grasp of Darkness, which was the only other spell that coul kill Skittles, but Dismember is so good, I have actually been cutting Doom Blades and GFTTs recently. I think Wurmcoil's price is completely determined by whether or not the Titans are reprinted. If they are, then everything continues as normal, but if they aren't all of a sudden Wurmcoil will be the go-to guy aside Consecrated Sphinx.

Magic 2011

Primeval Titan             22.44  -7.95
Inferno Titan               13.43  -0.78
Grave Titan                 12.78  -1.69
Jace Beleran               10.32  +0.74
Baneslayer Angel        10.00  -1.58
Garruk Wildspeaker    6.94    -0.29
Sun Titan                     6.10   -0.30
Lilliana Vess                5.83   +0.37

WOW! What a drop from Primeval Titan! Now I'm really glad I sold my set for 100 2 months ago! I knew the card would drop eventually, but I guess Valakut's poor matchup vs Caw-Blade and the whole Caw-Blade-wins-every-event thing that we have going on has made Valakut impossible to win with. I don't remember seeing a single person casting Primeval Titan or Sumoning Trap at the SCG Boston open, and that was before Deceiver-Twin winning faster came out, and Batterskull just made things harder for them. If you still have Primeval Titans, get rid of them! I predict this card will be $5 by Christmas. 2 Other cards that are going to fall are Inferno Titan and Jace Beleran. As LSV pointed out, the mana is simply really weak in Scars block, with just that 1 cycle of duals (which make aggro better!), so red will probably not be used as a control color without the reliable color fixing of ZEN fetches. That being said, because the format will be more aggro, Inferno Titan will be a tank (If titans aren't reprinted, all bets are off). Jace Beleran is simply not worth $10. Its too vulnerable and doesn't actually have an overwhelming impact on the game. Once big papa Jace is past, Vindicate Jace will go back to $5.

Rise of the Eldrazi

Gideon Jura                               28.97   -5.30
Vengevine                                 24.42    -5.03
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre           10.83     -0-
Splinter Twin                             10.76   +1.20
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn           10.12    -0-
Kozelik, the Butcher of Truth     9.42     -0.52
Kargan Dragonlord                    8.92    -0.98
All Is Dust                                 8.02    -1.16

So now were at a very interesting point in the life cycle of a card, approaching rotation out of Standard. Which cards have eternal value? Which cards are simply propped up by standard stardom? Well I think it's fairly certain that the 3 legendary Eldrazi will hold their $10 price tag for a very long time because of HUGE casual appeal. Kargan Dragonlord and All is Dust should never have been as expensive as they were, so now their prices will finally represent that. Splinter Twin will absolutely be played in Extended and Modern, so expect it to float around 4-6, and now were left with Vengevine and Gideon. By being a 5-mana planeswalker, Gideon needs a lot to be good, and he's seeing less and less play these days. I don't see him staying above 20 for the short term post rotation. As for Vengevine.... This guy is absolutely played in Legacy, my favorite deck with him right now is Intuition Elves (cast Intuition, grab 3 Vengevine, cast 2 elves, beat some face). He will probably hover at 15 for the very long term while Gideon falls closer to 9. I was offered 13 a piece on my Vengevines when selling ZEN block, but I decided to keep mine, because I think they will settle just a little higher than that.

Worldwake

Jace, the Mind Sculptor    81.91   -8.52
Stoneforge Mystic            20.60   -2.68
Creeping Tar Pit               8.15     -0.53
Abyssal Persecutor          8.00      -1.44
Avenger of Zendikar         6.91     -2.84
Kalastria Highborn           5.09      -0.53
Celestial Colonnade          4.92
Basilisk Collar                  4.53      -0.47

So for the 3rd month straight we see jace go down, and the second month straight he goes down by $8. Now here's the ultimate question: how low can Jace go? I would say that while he is in Standard and Caw-Blade is dominating (because you know it will until the moment Innistrad is released), he can't fall below 70. However, post rotation I can see him getting as low as 55 before going back up. He may not get that far because he is already a 4-of in Legacy, but that's the lowest he can possibly go. As for Stoneforge, she is going to go down to 14-15 in a month when the event decks are released, and she will probably stay in the 10-14 range for Legacy and long-term (although keep an eye on every equipment that is ever released because any time a sweet one comes out, Stoneforge goes up a couple bucks). Everything else on this list you can expect to drop off by 1/2 their value by rotation time.

Zendikar

Lotus Cobra                   14.14  -1.69
Sorin Markov                 10.67  -0.64
Eldrazi Monument           6.77    -2.05
Bloodghast                     7.21    -0.93
Nissa Revane                 7.14    -0.94
Goblin Guide                  6.46    -1.18
Iona, Shield of Emeria     5.53   -0.71
Chandra Ablaze              4.16     -0-

Recently I have been thinking about Lotus Cobra and how viable it is in Legacy. On one hand, theres twice as many fetches and many more increntives to use them (Duals) so he should be phenominal! On the other hand, theres no a lot of high mana spells that you want to actually cast in Legacy, so the explosion of mana may go to waste. As of right now, I can't think of anything to abuse him with in Legacy (remember - a slap with the back of the hand is discipline, while the front of the hand is abuse), so I think he will just clean up in Extended/Modern (I think he will be awesome in Mondern!). As for the other cards, Sorin Markov is getting the reprint in M12, and he is simply an epic planeswalker! Sure he costs 6, but have you ever been across the table from one? With the more aggressive metgame that I'm expecting post rortation, I think Sorin can be some serious breakout tech in a board controlling B/x deck (BR with Inferno Titan?). Nissa isn't going to lose many points by being a Planeswalker (and a sweet tribal one at that!) but Chandra and Eldrazi Monument aren't going to be hot casual cards because no one likes a downside. Goblin Guide will also hold value by being arguably the best red creature ever printed.

Fetch Lands

Polluted Delta             32.97   +2.98
Windswept Heath       28.24     -0-
Flooded Strand           26.77  +1.45
Wooded Foothills       20.35   -0.42
Bloodstained Mire      17.98   +0.39
Scalding Tarn              13.25   -0.34
Verdant Catacombs    12.06   -0.39
Misty Rainforest          11.68   -0.65
Arid Mesa                  11.68   -0.52
Marsh Flats                 11.05  -0.66

All the ZEN fetches have taken a short dip, but I feel that's because of Standard players selling out their Zendikar block cards, and they will soon rebound and start acclimating in price. How high can Polluted Delta go? I'm really glad I got my set when they were at 25, but I can see them going up to 35. Any further than that and I'm calling major shenanehans!

Revised Dual Lands
**All price updates are relative to April 2011 prices

Underground Sea   135.79   +14.94
Tropical Island       108.78   +9.11
Tundra                   99.32    +11.63
Volcanic Island      77.62     +8.83
Bayou                    77.38    +7.96
Taiga                     74.00    +6.07
Savannah               73.34  +11.14
Scrubland              64.02  +11.38
Badlands               56.88    +0.36
Plateau                  52.69    +7.19

The only things consistant in life are Death, Taxes, and Dual Lands gaining value. Get the ones you need and hold them. That's all I have to say

Various Legacy Staples

Aether Vial                  16.88
Force of Will               79.25
Grim Monolith              26.41
Lion's Eye Diamond     53.50
Llawan, Ceph. Emp.    15.88
Natural Order              41.69
Sensei's Divining Top   17.11
Show and Tell              32.57
Tarmogoyf                   71.11
Wasteland                   62.25

Natural Order is going up a lot! I think that's kinda funny because while it's a good combo, its not necessarily overpowered. Theres a ton of ways to beat a Progenetus, although Llawan, Cephalid Empress is probably my favorite way as you also get the splash damage against Merfolk.

That's all for today. I could have done a lot more cards in the Various Legacy Staples column, but I decided to keep it short so I could post this up instead of waiting another week. If theres any card you would like for me to track on this blog, just leave me a comment on this or any post or send me an email, and I will be sure to do it! Until next time, stay classy!

-rLack
Ryan.Lackie92@gmail.com