Tuesday, March 1, 2011

March 2011 Secondary Market Update

Hello everyone! Back once again is my monthy price update on the all the standard sets, with plenty of my own personal comments and insights throughout. The prices listed are TCGPlayer average prices, and any change less than a quarter will be listed as -0-. I listed all of the Mythic Rares and other rares of note:

Mirroden Beseiged

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas       50.40   +19.81
Sword of Feast and Famine  19.16   +7.80
Thrun, the Last Troll             15.92   -4.05
Blightsteel Colossus              11.46   -1.99
Inkmoth Nexus                    11.44     -0-
Green Sun's Zenith               8.68     -1.08
Hero of Oxid Ridge             7.90     +1.96
Hero of Bladehold               7.61     -1.64
Massacre Wurm                 5.75      -2.19
Consecrated Sphinx            4.68      -0.58
Praetor's Council                2.30      -0.88

I had a feeling the Sword was going to appreciate to about 18, but I wasn't able to acquire any for myself until just recently where I got 2 at 16 each. When the RW sword is released I can put my pricing theory to work, but this sword is absolutely going to retain its value over the long term. The tempo advantage provided by being able to untap your lands is nuts and making them discard a card is a nice addition as well. I also was quite wrong with Tezzeret last month, and instead of going down to 20, he has instead exploded in price. Good thing 6 moved through my hands at 30 (I was able to move 1 of them at 50). I do believe Thrun is oging to continue to lose value, but that's mainly because he is going to be overshadowed by Vengevine for the moment. I do believe that he is a worthwhile card to acquire in about a month at closer to 12 dollars, he is insane! Blightsteel is the Emrakul of the set, and the monster Eldrazi is sitting at 10.51, and so I expext Blightsteel to settle there too. Green Sun's Zenith is shockingly losing value, but I expect that it will turn around and go back up to around 11 for the long long term. I realized I had a typo last month saying Hero of BLADEHOLD was my sleeper card, but I meant Hero of OXID RIDGE. It made sense if you read my reasoning though. Regardless, the red hero is the dominant one right now, but the white one has seen play in Extended by having an awesome combination with Exalted, especially Finest Hour! I stand by last month's statement to acquire Consecrated Sphinx, but I'm going to add Massacre Wurm to that list. But don't but them yet! They're simply underpowered for current standard. I'm really hoping the Titans aren't reprinted, and if they aren't these 2 cards will very likely be the dominating finishers for a UB Control deck. So where is this all going? Everything is going to go down in price or stabelize. I don't think any cards will gain value going into next month, and if they do it will not be significant.
Scars of Mirroden

Koth of the Hammer             22.36   -2.83
Mox Opal                             21.10  +5.60
Venser, the Sojounor            14.26   -2.42
Elspeth Tirel                         13.88   -0.73
Sword of Body and Mind     11.94   +1.96
Wurmcoil Engine                  10.27    -0-
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon    9.51     -0-
Molten Tail Masticore          7.59     -2.79
Ratchet Bomb                      5.46
Lux Cannon                         3.22      -0-
Indominable Archangel         2.64    -0.28
Platinum Emporion               1.96      -0-
Mindslaver                           1.79     -0-
Geth, Lord of the Vault        1.54    -0.26
Liege of the Tangle               1.36   -0.28
Quicksilver Gargantuan        1.13     -0-

I feel like Koth is well settled where he is at, and now he is starting to see play in Boros and Valakut, and I believe he can absolutely get better! Mox Opal only went up because of the K-Red kraze that happened just before the Pro Tour, and Sword of Body and Mind only went up because Feast & Famine is. If your are looking to make money off of speculating, you can't xpect these cards to simply appreciate over time: they're getting drafted 2 packs of 3 still. Because the price is constantly gettign opened, the prices on all the cards will go down as supply increases. So where do I think these cards will go? I don't feel like there are any hidden gainers. If Koth keeps going down, I would acquire him as low as you can. He is everything red wants in a planeswalker, and a real reason to keep talkign about RDW, especially when combined with Hero of Oxid Ridge.

M11

Primeval Titan              38.64   -0.35

Grave Titan                 20.28   -1.86
Frost Titan                  13.15   -2.30
Baneslayer Angel         13.13  -0.55
Jace Beleran                 9.09    -0-

Fauna Shaman               7.58   -0-
Inferno Titan                  7.13  -0.47
Garruk Wildspeaker      7.57    -0-
Sun Titan                       6.16  -0.29

Knight Exemplar            6.02  -0.52
Demon of Death's Gate  5.39   -0-
Ajani Goldmane             5.23   -0-
Lilliana Vess                   4.89  -0-

Gaea's Revenge              4.82  -0-
Chandra Nalaar              3.01  -0-
Platinum Angel               2.48   -0-
Time Reversal                1.42   -0-

Wow.... theres absolutely nothing going on here.... The only things I can talk about is the change in Grave Titan and Frost Titan. Both are going down becuase Frost Titan doesn't do enough for you, and Grave Titan has been blanked by Sword of Feast and Famine. Move Frost Titan, just do it. I backdrafted one in a triple M11 draft recently (I had a sweet UW control list featuring 2 mana leaks, 3 Aether Adept, 4 scry cards, Angelic Arbitor, and Day of Judgement) and got a Frosty, a couple days later I just traded him at 10 just so I would get value. I think this card is on a slow winding road back down to 7 bucks. The card was only good in the very slow format of early standard, but these days winning the die roll can be your most important part of the match. It would take some insane removal to slow the format back down. Grave Titan is still a 1 card 2 turn clock, so I can see things making life easier for the [Zombie] Giant, especially if Doom Blade goes back to being the removal of choice because of all the artifacts. Sell Frosty, pick up Grave Titan at 18 if you can.

Rise of the Eldrazi

Vengevine                               34.20   -0-

Gideon Jura                            28.92  +7.63
All Is Dust                              12.55  -1.15
Kargan Dragonlord                 12.78  -0.82
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre         11.00   -0-
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn         10.52   -0-
Kozelik, the Butcher of Truth    9.74    -0-
Linvala, Keeper of Silence        7.42    -0-
Sarkhan the Mad                      6.91   -0-
Student of Warfare                   6.16
Nirkana Revenant                     5.06   -0-
Khalni Hydra                            4.78  +0.43
Lighthouse Chronologist           4.93   +0.62
Transcendant Master                4.01    -0-
Hellcarver Demon                    0.97    -0-
Cast Through Time                   0.83   -0-

WOW! Gideon just exploded in price! I did say keep an eye on him last month... Something that is important to know is that ROE has been pulled out of print. That means that cards will no longer naturally lose value because of increasin supply, and as we have seen with Khalni Hydra and Lighthouse Chronologist some casual cards are gaining value a little. I would move all of your Kargan Dragonlords as quickly as you can. It's soo slow and inefficient for current K-Red, and I have never been impressed with it in RDW. Goblin Wardriver feels like a much better use for my mana. It's too late to snag Gideon, but you can definitely move Dragonlord profitably.

Worldwake

Jace, the Mind Sculptor     99.69  +3.02
Stoneforge Mystic             20.35

Abyssal Persecutor           13.66   -0.98
Avenger of Zendikar         12.34   -0.87
Kalastria Highborn              7.86
Creeping Tar Pit                 7.32
Basilisk Collar                    5.29
Dragonmaster Outcast        4.08    -0-

Eye of Ugin                        3.23   -0.38
Omnath, Locus of Mana     3.51    -0-
Admonition Angel              2.61     -0-
Comet Storm                     1.79  -0.26
Wrexial, the Risen Deep     1.22    -0-
Novablast Wurm               1.16     -0-

If you were going to try to get a leg up on the profit margin by selling Jace before he rotates out in 7 months, you can still wait at least another 3 months. I feel like I should have picked Stoneforge as a good card to get a couple months ago. Once it was announced that the Sword cycle could be completed, I should have thought of the equipment tutor to grab all the high powered equipment that is yet to be fully released. Despite my failure to pick that up, I feel like now is a bad time to get Stoneforge, as it is definitely at the top of its price curve. Caw-Blade is very beatable, but it takes a serious deck to beat it. [hint: if you stop it from getting ahead, it loses it's sole advantage] So sell Stoneforge if you have any liquid ones, don't pick it up unless you have to.

Zendikar

Lotus Cobra                      18.21  +0.42

Eldrazi Monument              13.45  -1.80
Scalding Tarn                    12.91  +0.27
Verdant Catacombs           12.58  +0.43
Sorin Markov                    12.05  -0.35

Arid Mesa                         11.62  +0.26

Misty Rainforest                11.55     -0-
Marsh Flats                       11.19   +0.37
Nissa Revane                      9.43    -0-

Bloodghast                          9.37   -0.52
Goblin Guide                       8.97   +0.31
Iona, Shield of Emeria          6.40   -0-
Chandra Ablaze                   4.31   -0-
Felidar Sovereign                 4.23   -0-
Ob Nixilis, the Fallen           3.85    -0-
Warren Instigator                3.05    -0-
Mindbreak Trap                  2.63   -0-
Rampaging Baloths              2.37   -0-
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet  2.32   -0-
Obsidian Fireheart               1.15   -0-
Eternity Vessel                     0.93   -0-
Lorthos, the Tidemaker        0.83   -0-

Eldrazi Monument is an interesting card. Clearly it has proved it can be powerful, yet is has constantly struggled to actually perform. I think this is a card like Darksteel Forge that will hold long-term value simply on casual apeal. theres not much happening overall, but I want to point out the fetch lands all going up except for Misty Rainforest. I do believe these cards will appreciate a couple cents a month for forever. These are very safe investments, and awesome ways to smooth out large trades, as everyone is fine with acquiring them. I have a set of each for standard, 1 of each in my 5-color EDH deck, and then a pair of Scalding Tarn and a set of Arid Mesas for liquid, almost all of them traded for at 10 each. Many people don't follow the suble changes that occur over time for cards and instead spend their time making sure they don't get skrewed over by trading their Stoneforge at 15. So as I have always said, get fetches whenever it's convenient.

That's all for me for the prices for this month! Until next time, stay clasy!

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